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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #33 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Casey Mize
Casey Mize · #33
V⁻ —VORP 38V⁺ —
Casey Mize

Casey Mize

SP·DET
Compare
Compare
BF
186
K %
26.3%
BB %
6.5%
xwOBA
.258
PTS
117
PPG
13.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj151577.054003.983.8021.5%6.7%14.8%————1429.46
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
44
93.3
FB Spin
39
2231
Extension
2026
9
9
47.7
2
3
0
0
2.27
2.41
26.3%
6.5%
19.8%
.258
.264
79.2%
35.8%
117
13.00
20253230158.7147003.913.8822.1%5.7%16.4%.299.30676.3%40.3%32610.19
20242422112.036004.183.8117.2%6.4%10.8%.339.32070.8%49.6%1496.21
20224417.301004.675.528.9%4.4%4.5%.365.29382.5%38.5%164.00
20213232159.0710003.744.4119.1%6.6%12.5%.339.26478.6%48.6%2868.94
20207728.303006.996.3819.5%9.8%9.7%.401.26859.1%39.3%101.43
83
6.80
Results
xwOBA
96
.258
Barrel %
64
7.3
Hard-Hit %
88
33.3
K %
85
26.3
BB %
76
6.5
Chase %
47
30.4
Whiff %
87
27.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
101
≈ 56th pctl
Stuff+
104
if they swing
Command+
97
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
98
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.7%
43 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.003 worse than avg · 112 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.031
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.002 worse than avg · 27 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 403 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
35.6%93.32183+17.7+9.76.8024.1%48.0%27.2%20.0%20.0%0.365
Split-FingerFS
29.9%87.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE44°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFSSLSISV
Usage36%30%21%10%4%
MPH93.387.187.293.281.9
RHP Avg95.086.786.794.3—
1403
+4.6
+16.0
6.83
35.7%
36.2%
25.7%
40.3%
28.9%
0.151
SliderSL
20.8%87.22153+5.1-3.16.7718.2%68.5%43.8%34.8%25.0%0.387
SinkerSI
9.7%93.22209+14.5+14.66.7920.0%44.1%20.6%47.4%25.0%0.395
SlurveSV
4.0%81.92507-6.7-11.86.7925.0%14.3%7.1%16.7%25.0%0.323

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 18″SL · 21″SV · 26″FS · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″SI · 30″SL · 42″SV · 58″FS · 43″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.22′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFSSLSISV-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFSSLSISV-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFSSLSISV

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.