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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #420 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Chad Patrick
Chad Patrick · #60
V⁻ —VORP -66V⁺ —
Chad Patrick

Chad Patrick

SP / RP·MIL
Compare
Compare
BF
214
K %
19.2%
BB %
9.8%
xwOBA
.326
PTS
121
PPG
6.72
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj36973.044004.334.3521.4%8.2%13.3%————1213.37
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
28
92.2
FB Spin
70
2344
Extension
2026
18
6
52.7
3
3
3
2
2.73
3.73
19.2%
9.8%
9.4%
.326
.272
82.5%
36.4%
121
6.72
20253423132.0310023.483.4725.1%7.9%17.2%.308.30678.1%31.9%2427.12
14
6.06
Results
xwOBA
47
.326
Barrel %
64
7.3
Hard-Hit %
47
40.4
K %
32
19.2
BB %
21
9.8
Chase %
50
30.5
Whiff %
63
23.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 65th pctl
Stuff+
105
if they swing
Command+
101
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
105
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.0%
30 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.046
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.004 worse than avg · 103 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.008
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.022 better than avg · 29 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 377 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
37.5%88.72402+12.9+0.26.0431.7%46.8%27.5%37.9%21.1%0.220
4-Seam FastballFF
25.1%94.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE35°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCFFSISVCH
Usage37%25%22%14%1%
MPH88.794.093.884.888.3
RHP Avg89.895.094.3—86.9
2278
+16.1
+9.2
6.02
12.5%
47.9%
19.2%
23.7%
4.2%
0.300
SinkerSI
22.0%93.82115+11.1+15.76.0114.3%54.7%35.9%10.3%21.4%0.310
SlurveSV
14.1%84.82389-3.4-4.86.0422.2%22.0%12.2%31.3%5.9%0.345
ChangeupCH
1.4%88.31986+5.3+13.26.050.0%75.0%25.0%0.0%0.0%0.322

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″FC · 18″SI · 18″CH · 20″SV · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″FC · 36″SI · 25″CH · 40″SV · 48″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.10′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCFFSISVCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCFFSISVCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCFFSISVCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.