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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #40 of 237

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson · #40
V⁻ -1VORP 25V⁺ 55
Chandler Simpson

Chandler Simpson

OF·TBR
Compare
Compare
PA
396
H
107
HR
0
AVG
.292
xwOBA
.269
PPG
2.14
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj82356.280.318.340.059.29711.0%5.6%5.4%1301842.25—
202696396.292
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
1
.269
xBA
55
.256
xSLG
.328
.354
.062
.269
9.1%
5.1%
4.0%
0
26
205
2.14
—
2025107441.295.327.345.050.2999.8%4.5%5.3%0432422.26—
0
.292
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
0
81.1
Median EV
2
86.1
90th % EV
1
96.1
Barrel %
0
0.0
Hard-Hit %
1
13.9
Sweet-Spot %
1
27.2
Bat Speed
Avg
2
62.7
Median
2
63.8
90th %
1
67.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
48
30.1
Whiff %
98
8.6
K %
98
9.1
BB %
5
5.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
114
≈ 91th pctl
Chase cost
-3.6r
51 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.9r
41 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
50.4%
276 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.96
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
421111233+22%9+0%11+17%631+38%8-17%12-39%23-29%24-7%1452+40%10+22%9-39%18-12%24+20%10+67%6133+20%105+57%7521223CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 276