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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #19 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Chase Burns
Chase Burns · #19
V⁻ —VORP 60V⁺ —
Chase Burns

Chase Burns

SP·CIN
Compare
Compare
BF
273
K %
29.7%
BB %
7.7%
xwOBA
.273
PTS
234
PPG
18.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj211682.065003.513.3828.4%7.7%20.7%————1898.99
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
97
98.0
FB Spin
98
2578
Extension
2026
13
13
75.7
7
1
0
0
2.14
3.23
29.7%
7.7%
22.0%
.273
.243
91.3%
41.8%
234
18.00
202514845.003014.402.5935.4%8.5%26.9%.295.34664.0%37.1%896.36
33
6.34
Results
xwOBA
90
.273
Barrel %
42
8.8
Hard-Hit %
54
39.4
K %
96
29.7
BB %
57
7.7
Chase %
83
33.4
Whiff %
97
31.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
126
≈ 99th pctl
Stuff+
124
if they swing
Command+
106
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
130
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
3.2%
13 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.024
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.018 better than avg · 119 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.050
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.021 worse than avg · 31 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 412 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
57.6%98.22556+18.1+3.46.4218.7%50.0%23.7%24.2%14.6%0.400
SliderSL
34.9%90.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE52°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCH
Usage58%35%8%
MPH98.290.990.1
RHP Avg95.086.786.9
2699
+0.7
-2.8
6.40
46.0%
44.2%
38.3%
41.8%
34.1%
0.182
ChangeupCH
7.6%90.11839+10.2+15.66.3623.1%30.8%19.2%38.9%14.3%0.336

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″CH · 24″SL · 30″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 19″CH · 38″SL · 34″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.43′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.