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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #112 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Chase Dollander
Chase Dollander · #60
V⁻ —VORP -29V⁺ —
Chase Dollander

Chase Dollander

SP / RP·COL
Compare
Compare
BF
190
K %
24.7%
BB %
9.5%
xwOBA
.307
PTS
84
PPG
8.40
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj171061.035005.054.5020.8%10.2%10.7%————714.20
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
99
98.6
FB Spin
78
2371
Extension
2026
10
3
44.0
3
3
0
0
3.89
4.17
24.7%
9.5%
15.2%
.307
.287
79.5%
49.6%
84
8.40
20252222101.3213006.755.5918.6%11.1%7.5%.347.30260.6%42.4%261.18
43
6.43
Results
xwOBA
69
.307
Barrel %
26
9.9
Hard-Hit %
0
52.1
K %
70
24.7
BB %
28
9.5
Chase %
18
27.6
Whiff %
72
24.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
113
≈ 91th pctl
Stuff+
104
if they swing
Command+
98
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
109
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.7%
39 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.034
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.008 better than avg · 107 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.001
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.029 better than avg · 27 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 365 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
34.2%99.12354+13.2+12.26.3925.4%62.7%30.9%31.7%26.7%0.254
SinkerSI
24.2%98.72413

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE23°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSISLCHCUST
Usage34%24%15%14%7%6%
MPH99.198.788.091.080.286.4
RHP Avg95.094.386.786.980.283.3
+5.9
+17.4
6.39
13.9%
60.3%
26.9%
19.4%
11.1%
0.257
SliderSL
14.6%88.02748-0.3-6.16.4629.6%42.6%31.9%51.9%36.4%0.401
ChangeupCH
14.3%91.01886+2.7+15.06.5532.0%37.0%19.6%37.9%13.0%0.346
CurveballCU
7.1%80.22799-8.1-15.06.5354.5%21.7%34.8%38.9%37.5%0.007
SweeperST
5.6%86.42748+7.7-8.76.58100.0%22.2%33.3%7.1%0.0%—

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 18″ST · 22″CH · 20″SL · 24″CU · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 18″SI · 18″ST · 48″CH · 36″SL · 42″CU · 62″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.95′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSISLCHCUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSISLCHCUST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSISLCHCUST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.