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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #127 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt · #60
V⁻ —VORP -40V⁺ —
Chris Bassitt

Chris Bassitt

SP·BAL
Compare
Compare
BF
263
K %
14.1%
BB %
8.4%
xwOBA
.343
PTS
48
PPG
4.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919104.067004.464.1719.5%8.2%11.3%————1507.90
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
13
91.1
FB Spin
9
2106
Extension
2026
12
10
56.3
4
4
0
0
5.27
4.77
14.1%
8.4%
5.7%
.343
.340
72.1%
47.4%
48
4.00
20254032184.7129023.753.8422.5%7.1%15.4%.316.30476.5%46.1%3689.20
20243232176.01015004.143.9622.0%9.2%12.8%.332.33372.5%40.9%2578.03
20233434204.7169003.694.1622.5%7.1%15.4%.311.27976.2%42.9%43212.71
20223333195.31710003.463.7022.4%6.6%15.8%.294.28176.8%49.7%42312.82
20212928162.0134003.063.2724.8%6.1%18.7%.287.26978.4%42.1%41914.45
2020141378.062002.423.4321.0%6.5%14.5%.301.29285.7%44.9%18913.50
20192825144.0105003.814.2923.0%7.7%15.3%.303.26776.5%42.3%30410.86
201811747.723003.023.9220.0%9.3%10.7%.306.26573.2%44.3%888.00
20168842.314006.174.8217.3%10.5%6.8%.397.33867.1%46.9%141.75
29
6.28
Results
xwOBA
22
.343
Barrel %
95
4.1
Hard-Hit %
85
34.5
K %
3
14.1
BB %
45
8.4
Chase %
3
24.0
Whiff %
20
19.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 64th pctl
Stuff+
103
if they swing
Command+
94
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
109
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
7.8%
30 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.033
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.009 better than avg · 119 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.007 worse than avg · 34 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 386 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
36.5%91.72074+4.8+16.96.2811.5%59.4%29.7%9.6%6.5%0.405
CurveballCU
25.4%71.02308

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE29°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SICUFCFFCHST
Usage36%25%17%9%6%6%
MPH91.771.089.291.085.173.4
RHP Avg94.380.289.895.086.983.3
-12.1
-17.0
6.32
23.9%
44.9%
24.7%
38.8%
9.4%
0.306
CutterFC
17.1%89.22156+9.3+0.96.3817.9%36.7%18.3%26.3%5.3%0.318
4-Seam FastballFF
8.5%91.02113+11.1+5.46.298.3%33.3%3.3%10.0%7.7%0.528
ChangeupCH
6.3%85.11704-0.7+14.56.1933.3%22.7%13.6%11.8%0.0%0.359
SweeperST
6.3%73.42382-0.2-19.46.0333.3%31.8%27.3%20.0%0.0%0.283

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″FC · 16″SI · 18″ST · 20″CH · 19″CU · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 35″FC · 37″SI · 32″ST · 78″CH · 50″CU · 85″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.43′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SICUFCFFCHST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SICUFCFFCHST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SICUFCFFCHST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.