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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Chris Paddack

Chris Paddack

SP·CIN
Compare
Compare
BF
224
K %
16.5%
BB %
7.6%
xwOBA
.338
PTS
-12
PPG
-1.09
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj5528.012004.964.6617.5%6.5%11.1%————326.39
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
16
91.3
FB Spin
15
2142
Extension
2026
11
9
47.7
0
7
0
0
7.17
4.93
16.5%
7.6%
8.9%
.338
.350
61.3%
39.3%
-12
-1.09
20253530166.0512105.264.9116.7%5.5%11.2%.344.27867.2%37.5%1855.29
2024181893.053005.033.9620.6%5.5%15.1%.343.33970.5%38.5%1377.61
2023408.710003.121.7236.4%4.5%31.9%.290.33375.8%30.8%317.75
20228630.314004.452.4121.5%2.2%19.3%.289.35159.1%47.1%394.88
20212422110.778005.613.9021.6%4.8%16.8%.331.31758.5%44.5%1425.92
2020131361.346005.435.0423.4%4.8%18.6%.345.30870.5%49.1%796.08
20192727143.3107003.273.7926.9%5.5%21.4%.280.23677.3%40.7%35813.26
86
6.84
Results
xwOBA
30
.338
Barrel %
48
8.3
Hard-Hit %
57
39.3
K %
14
16.5
BB %
57
7.6
Chase %
76
32.6
Whiff %
22
19.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
102
≈ 57th pctl
Stuff+
111
if they swing
Command+
100
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
108
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.1%
33 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.000 better than avg · 133 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.022
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.008 better than avg · 28 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 406 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
29.3%93.02178+19.1+6.96.8816.3%54.8%30.8%34.0%15.0%0.339
ChangeupCH
23.4%85.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE47°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHFCSTCUSISL
Usage29%23%15%12%11%9%0%
MPH93.085.086.179.777.092.882.5
RHP Avg95.086.989.883.380.294.386.7
1662
+5.8
+15.3
6.85
32.0%
33.7%
26.5%
52.7%
22.9%
0.280
CutterFC
14.9%86.11966+7.0-2.66.7428.6%37.7%20.8%15.2%13.3%0.294
SweeperST
12.1%79.72320-4.4-10.86.6825.0%44.2%32.6%37.5%18.2%0.417
CurveballCU
11.0%77.02156-15.4-6.76.6330.8%33.3%25.6%19.2%0.0%0.250
SinkerSI
9.0%92.82090+14.6+13.46.8810.0%62.5%18.8%33.3%0.0%0.327
SliderSL
0.3%82.51992+0.8-0.56.80—100.0%100.0%———

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 18″FC · 23″ST · 26″CH · 23″SL · 25″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″SI · 31″FC · 47″ST · 65″CH · 51″SL · 55″CU · 71″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.40′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHFCSTCUSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHFCSTCUSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHFCSTCUSISL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.