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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #5 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Chris Sale
Chris Sale · #5
V⁻ —VORP 113V⁺ —
Chris Sale

Chris Sale

SP·ATL
Compare
Compare
BF
295
K %
29.2%
BB %
6.4%
xwOBA
.289
PTS
213
PPG
17.75
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj1919108.094003.102.8329.8%6.7%23.1%————28815.16
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
79
95.6
FB Spin
48
2266
Extension
2026
12
12
72.7
8
4
0
0
2.23
2.88
29.2%
6.4%
22.8%
.289
.284
84.2%
44.5%
213
17.75
20252221129.775002.502.6032.1%6.2%25.9%.265.31283.1%40.1%35916.32
20243030180.7193002.341.9932.0%5.5%26.5%.264.31680.3%46.0%57519.17
20232222112.766004.553.9629.3%6.8%22.5%.296.29570.2%38.4%22110.05
2022225.701003.182.3920.0%4.0%16.0%.315.27857.1%50.0%73.50
2021121251.752004.013.8928.4%6.6%21.8%.293.36073.4%47.0%1149.50
20192626152.3711004.253.2135.5%6.0%29.5%.284.30767.4%43.9%35913.81
20183432175.0134012.261.9838.2%5.5%32.7%.233.28981.3%44.9%58917.32
20173736237.01810003.042.5236.1%5.0%31.1%.253.31078.8%39.8%69818.86
20163535239.01810003.393.5425.6%5.0%20.6%.294.28177.5%42.2%60017.14
55
6.55
Results
xwOBA
83
.289
Barrel %
77
6.6
Hard-Hit %
98
30.2
K %
94
29.2
BB %
80
6.4
Chase %
98
36.6
Whiff %
88
27.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
115
≈ 93th pctl
Stuff+
100
if they swing
Command+
116
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
102
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.4%
40 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 141 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.025
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.004 better than avg · 13 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 427 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
41.6%95.12284+9.6+15.06.6120.3%55.6%28.9%33.3%20.8%0.326
SliderSL
41.3%78.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE11°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCHSI
Usage42%41%10%7%
MPH95.178.186.594.2
LHP Avg93.284.784.693.0
2437
-4.7
-12.0
6.40
29.8%
48.2%
36.2%
28.8%
22.2%
0.339
ChangeupCH
10.0%86.51838-0.6+16.66.7323.8%35.3%17.6%45.5%0.0%0.243
SinkerSI
7.0%94.22123+2.1+18.86.618.3%66.7%25.0%25.0%0.0%0.267

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″SI · 19″CH · 20″SL · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 23″SI · 25″CH · 42″SL · 61″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.01′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCHSI-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCHSI

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.