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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #15 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Christian Walker
Christian Walker · #15
V⁻ -28VORP 0V⁺ 39
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B·HOU
Compare
Compare
PA
278
H
63
HR
16
AVG
.252
xwOBA
.326
PPG
2.63
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj98423.236.312.447.211.33523.8%8.8%15.1%2122242.28—
202668278.252
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
40
.326
xBA
30
.243
xSLG
.325
.500
.248
.326
21.2%
8.3%
12.9%
16
0
179
2.63
—
2025154640.238.299.421.183.31527.7%6.3%21.4%2722821.83—
2024134553.250.339.467.217.35724.1%9.9%14.2%2633292.46—
2023181665.256.335.493.237.34319.1%9.3%9.8%33174762.63—
2022171668.241.330.476.235.36419.6%10.3%9.3%3624392.57—
2021123445.244.316.382.138.31523.8%8.5%15.3%1002091.70—
202057243.271.338.459.188.34220.6%7.8%12.8%711422.49—
2019158605.258.348.475.217.36925.6%11.1%14.5%2983502.22—
20183653.163.226.388.225.30041.5%5.7%35.8%31140.39—
20171515.250.400.833.583.48833.3%6.7%26.6%20130.87—
55
.431
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
63
90.3
Median EV
61
93.5
90th % EV
49
105.0
Barrel %
70
12.0
Hard-Hit %
65
45.3
Sweet-Spot %
16
31.8
Bat Speed
Avg
66
71.9
Median
69
73.5
90th %
69
78.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
51
29.2
Whiff %
20
27.6
K %
44
21.2
BB %
34
8.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
105
≈ 70th pctl
Chase cost
-6.0r
70 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.2r
36 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.3%
354 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.31
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11111113+40%105+38%8+63%8413+0%13-16%25+0%21+21%19+82%111+53%15+25%16-62%21-25%12-12%17+64%111+30%10+50%6+17%23-9%11+0%1342+0%6+0%105411CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 354