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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Clay Holmes

Clay Holmes

SP·NYM
Compare
Compare
BF
215
K %
20.9%
BB %
8.4%
xwOBA
.308
PTS
117
PPG
13.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj11639.032003.773.7219.9%8.9%11.0%————716.42
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
39
93.0
FB Spin
27
2188
Extension
2026
9
9
52.7
4
4
0
0
2.39
3.21
20.9%
8.4%
12.5%
.308
.250
82.1%
55.3%
117
13.00
20253432171.0128003.424.0018.2%9.3%8.9%.323.27974.6%55.9%3199.38
202482076.7663082.933.0625.1%8.1%17.0%.286.30873.4%64.6%3324.05
202368064.3542452.802.4527.1%8.8%18.3%.262.29974.1%66.7%2874.22
202272074.37420102.182.7925.0%7.7%17.3%.250.24276.7%77.0%3264.53
202174076.3840143.303.1426.7%9.9%16.8%.270.27170.2%68.5%2172.93
2020202.300000.001.3916.7%0.0%16.7%.256.286100.0%60.0%73.50
201936051.022015.474.8823.2%14.9%8.3%.342.29265.5%60.1%671.86
201811426.313006.845.3416.3%17.8%-1.5%.353.34665.1%57.8%-3-0.27
8
5.86
Results
xwOBA
68
.308
Barrel %
91
5.3
Hard-Hit %
22
44.0
K %
43
20.9
BB %
45
8.4
Chase %
70
32.3
Whiff %
23
19.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
109
≈ 81th pctl
Stuff+
101
if they swing
Command+
114
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
97
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.7%
37 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.005 better than avg · 100 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.015
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.014 better than avg · 17 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 347 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SinkerSI
43.0%93.52143+2.1+15.85.899.2%58.7%27.3%17.7%8.3%0.359
SweeperST
19.2%81.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE41°100 PITCHSAMPLE
SISTCHFCCUFF
Usage43%19%16%14%7%1%
MPH93.581.989.388.681.494.1
RHP Avg94.383.386.989.880.295.0
2896
-4.6
-16.6
5.75
42.9%
38.8%
38.8%
43.9%
25.0%
0.151
ChangeupCH
16.0%89.3839-2.0+9.25.9436.8%33.9%30.4%59.5%20.0%0.209
CutterFC
13.8%88.62575+2.7-1.55.9021.4%43.8%25.0%48.1%7.7%0.480
CurveballCU
7.4%81.42965-15.1-9.35.7716.7%23.1%19.2%20.0%18.2%0.070
4-Seam FastballFF
0.6%94.12260+10.1+12.85.950.0%100.0%50.0%—0.0%0.573

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 21″FC · 24″ST · 24″SI · 23″CH · 26″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″FC · 40″ST · 58″SI · 30″CH · 41″CU · 59″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.57′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
SISTCHFCCUFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
SISTCHFCCUFF-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
SISTCHFCCUFF

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.