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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #9 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger · #9
V⁻ 5VORP 72V⁺ 73
Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger

OF·NYY
Compare
Compare
PA
277
H
64
HR
9
AVG
.275
xwOBA
.377
PPG
3.11
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj93400.259.331.446.187.34414.9%9.6%5.3%1582522.71—
202665277.275
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
83
.377
xBA
87
.288
xSLG
.379
.472
.197
.377
13.0%
14.1%
-1.1%
9
7
202
3.11
—
2025163658.271.337.478.207.32813.7%8.7%5.0%29134732.90—
2024135570.265.327.426.161.31115.6%7.9%7.7%1893422.53—
2023135556.307.364.525.218.33015.6%7.2%8.4%26214493.33—
2022156551.210.268.388.178.28427.2%6.9%20.3%19142261.45—
2021112350.165.242.302.137.28526.9%8.9%18.0%1081481.32—
202077243.239.333.455.216.38017.3%12.3%5.0%1272102.73—
2019167661.304.408.628.324.44516.3%14.4%1.9%47186103.65—
2018182633.260.344.470.210.33423.9%10.9%13.0%25193812.09—
2017159548.267.354.581.314.37826.6%11.7%14.9%39124272.69—
64
.458
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
48
89.7
Median EV
19
89.5
90th % EV
27
103.0
Barrel %
46
8.5
Hard-Hit %
37
40.3
Sweet-Spot %
88
41.3
Bat Speed
Avg
28
68.7
Median
24
69.8
90th %
10
72.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
75
25.2
Whiff %
79
16.4
K %
86
13.0
BB %
86
14.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
111
≈ 87th pctl
Chase cost
-4.9r
56 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.2r
46 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.5%
345 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.05
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
323+0%631+13%8+29%7+15%13+6%18+22%9+25%82+33%9+0%15-32%22-40%20+0%22+67%124+20%10+0%17-33%15-39%18-14%14+42%12343+9%11-12%8+40%10221212CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 345