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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #69 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Cole Ragans
Cole Ragans · #60
V⁻ —VORP -2V⁺ —
Cole Ragans

Cole Ragans

SP·KCR
Compare
Compare
BF
152
K %
29.6%
BB %
15.1%
xwOBA
.345
PTS
48
PPG
6.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj161680.045003.683.4128.8%9.5%19.3%————16910.56
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

152 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
63
94.4
FB Spin
98
2559
2026
8
8
35.3
1
4
0
0
4.84
6.18
29.6%
15.1%
14.5%
.345
.233
83.3%
34.9%
48
6.00
2025141466.334005.432.9238.1%7.8%30.3%.257.36761.8%37.2%1289.14
20243635201.31210013.172.8729.3%8.8%20.5%.285.29474.3%41.4%48713.53
2023301299.775043.703.0528.8%10.5%18.3%.284.28368.3%44.5%2337.77
202210942.703005.064.9315.4%9.1%6.3%.340.30570.1%37.4%333.30
Extension
14
6.06
Results
xwOBA
21
.345
Barrel %
1
15.7
Hard-Hit %
50
39.8
K %
96
29.6
BB %
0
15.1
Chase %
23
27.9
Whiff %
92
28.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 64th pctl
Stuff+
114
if they swing
Command+
93
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
118
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.9%
22 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 123 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.031
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.002 worse than avg · 34 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 376 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
50.3%94.42530+17.4+12.56.0517.2%47.9%25.3%22.4%17.4%0.428
ChangeupCH
17.9%84.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE42°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLKCFC
Usage50%18%16%10%7%
MPH94.484.085.278.189.6
LHP Avg93.284.684.7—88.1
2092
+11.7
+15.6
6.18
34.5%
46.2%
26.9%
35.7%
19.0%
0.236
SliderSL
15.5%85.22571-0.0-0.26.0934.8%26.7%22.2%36.4%19.0%0.297
Knuckle CurveKC
9.7%78.12401-13.7-10.65.9414.3%42.9%32.1%12.5%0.0%0.157
CutterFC
6.6%89.62539+8.9+1.96.0028.6%73.7%47.4%20.0%0.0%0.404

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″FC · 23″CH · 22″KC · 26″SL · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″FC · 37″CH · 52″KC · 66″SL · 49″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.38′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLKCFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLKCFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLKCFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.