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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #101 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Colin Rea
Colin Rea · #60
V⁻ —VORP -22V⁺ —
Colin Rea

Colin Rea

SP·CHC
Compare
Compare
BF
278
K %
18.7%
BB %
7.9%
xwOBA
.358
PTS
93
PPG
6.64
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj211387.055004.524.3418.3%7.2%11.2%————1276.06
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
37
92.8
FB Spin
20
2163
Extension
2026
14
11
69.3
5
4
1
0
5.19
4.86
18.7%
7.9%
10.8%
.358
.300
70.8%
46.8%
93
6.64
20253627169.7118104.034.2619.1%6.6%12.5%.329.29375.6%40.0%2918.08
20243328173.3136114.154.6118.9%6.0%12.9%.343.27777.1%39.5%3269.88
20232622124.766004.554.7421.3%7.4%13.9%.325.25472.6%44.1%2108.08
2021106.000007.505.7720.8%0.0%20.8%.355.29447.6%21.1%66.00
20209214.011015.794.8916.1%3.2%12.9%.335.25562.5%44.0%192.11
20162221110.765005.124.6217.6%9.7%7.9%.343.29965.7%47.7%1366.18
20156631.722004.263.4219.5%8.3%11.2%.346.29065.4%49.5%518.50
74
6.69
Results
xwOBA
14
.358
Barrel %
6
12.4
Hard-Hit %
12
45.3
K %
31
18.7
BB %
51
7.9
Chase %
64
32.0
Whiff %
25
19.6
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
104
≈ 67th pctl
Stuff+
103
if they swing
Command+
110
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
98
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.8%
37 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.039
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.003 better than avg · 115 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.034
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.005 worse than avg · 16 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 342 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
44.5%94.12139+14.4+8.86.8211.9%53.4%24.6%41.8%14.7%0.289
Split-FingerFS
17.4%87.8

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFSSLSISTCUFC
Usage45%17%12%9%8%5%4%
MPH94.187.886.292.982.779.586.8
RHP Avg95.086.786.794.383.380.289.8
1407
-2.1
+13.4
6.84
21.7%
34.8%
30.4%
50.0%
14.3%
0.240
SliderSL
11.7%86.22136-0.6-3.96.7947.1%38.7%38.7%47.4%46.7%0.320
SinkerSI
8.7%92.92125+9.7+14.56.830.0%47.8%17.4%8.3%0.0%0.429
SweeperST
8.3%82.72482+3.1-16.96.7211.1%27.3%9.1%25.0%11.1%0.163
CurveballCU
5.3%79.52155-8.4-11.06.6150.0%28.6%21.4%10.0%—1.432
CutterFC
4.2%86.82220+6.3-5.16.7740.0%36.4%36.4%42.9%—0.451

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″SI · 18″FC · 20″ST · 23″CU · 22″SL · 24″FS · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″SI · 32″FC · 45″ST · 56″CU · 63″SL · 47″FS · 44″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.19′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFSSLSISTCUFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFSSLSISTCUFC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFSSLSISTCUFC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.