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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #123 of 237

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150Colton Cowser
Colton Cowser · #60
V⁻ -29VORP -12V⁺ 24
Colton Cowser

Colton Cowser

OF·BAL
Compare
Compare
PA
254
H
45
HR
8
AVG
.207
xwOBA
.320
PPG
1.06
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj56240.230.315.404.174.32230.7%10.0%20.7%951001.79—
202688254.207
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

254 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
35
.320
xBA
6
.211
.315
.332
.125
.320
29.5%
13.0%
16.5%
8
7
93
1.06
—
202594360.196.269.385.189.29535.6%7.5%28.1%16141211.29—
2024155563.242.321.445.203.33530.6%9.2%21.4%2492681.73—
20232477.115.289.148.033.31328.6%16.9%11.7%01180.75—
xSLG
46
.411
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
9
85.7
Median EV
39
91.8
90th % EV
36
103.9
Barrel %
58
10.3
Hard-Hit %
25
37.2
Sweet-Spot %
5
29.0
Bat Speed
Avg
64
71.7
Median
81
74.6
90th %
83
79.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
57
28.6
Whiff %
4
31.6
K %
8
29.5
BB %
87
13.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
107
≈ 75th pctl
Chase cost
-4.1r
40 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.6r
38 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.9%
254 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.25
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
11212+25%8-8%12-12%8+43%7+0%83+46%13+0%10-45%11-30%20-62%1653+40%15+12%17-16%19-27%11441+29%74-17%6512111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 254