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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Colton Cowser

Colton Cowser

OF·BAL
Compare
Compare
PA
360
H
64
HR
16
AVG
.196
xwOBA
.295
PPG
1.29
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202655151.235.318.394.159.31628.5%10.6%17.9%61681.24—
202594360.196
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

360 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
4
.295
xBA
0
.198
.269
.385
.189
.295
35.6%
7.5%
28.1%
16
14
121
1.29
—
2024155563.242.321.445.203.33530.6%9.2%21.4%2492681.73—
20232477.115.289.148.033.31328.6%16.9%11.7%01180.75—
xSLG
23
.400
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
59
90.6
Median EV
45
93.0
90th % EV
57
106.0
Barrel %
83
14.1
Hard-Hit %
54
45.7
Sweet-Spot %
28
34.7
Bat Speed
Avg
55
71.0
Median
66
73.1
90th %
64
77.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
74
23.7
Whiff %
2
32.1
K %
0
35.6
BB %
35
7.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
95
≈ 31th pctl
Chase cost
-24.3r
229 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-16.0r
253 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
42.3%
1,488 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.71
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
5+40%10+15%13+13%15+14%7+0%7+27%15+19%31+8%39+6%32+18%34+5%20+0%15+59%22+5%37-36%67-43%68-31%49+29%28+19%16+35%31+0%60-33%39-34%62-24%42+42%19+18%11+22%18+24%17+24%25-19%21+21%14+0%6244+0%6+0%7+17%632CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000