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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #77 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Connelly Early
Connelly Early · #60
V⁻ —VORP -6V⁺ —
Connelly Early

Connelly Early

SP·BOS
Compare
Compare
BF
300
K %
23.0%
BB %
9.0%
xwOBA
.335
PTS
148
PPG
11.38
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj201474.055004.053.7822.7%8.9%13.8%————1306.52
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
45
93.3
FB Spin
48
2266
Extension
2026
13
13
71.0
5
4
0
0
3.30
4.75
23.0%
9.0%
14.0%
.335
.258
87.9%
40.9%
148
11.38
20255523.013003.130.8436.7%5.1%31.6%.240.40465.5%48.9%5010.00
76
6.70
Results
xwOBA
30
.335
Barrel %
10
11.6
Hard-Hit %
28
42.9
K %
58
23.0
BB %
32
9.0
Chase %
70
32.3
Whiff %
37
20.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
91
≈ 18th pctl
Stuff+
99
if they swing
Command+
95
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
90
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
13.3%
47 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.002 better than avg · 102 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.074
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.044 worse than avg · 22 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 354 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
34.1%93.82334+16.1+10.66.7817.5%51.2%27.3%30.5%13.3%0.455
ChangeupCH
21.4%83.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHCUSISLST
Usage34%21%15%13%11%6%
MPH93.883.379.792.286.881.9
LHP Avg93.284.679.093.084.781.0
1268
-3.2
+12.1
6.63
25.6%
35.5%
22.4%
42.9%
21.4%
0.289
CurveballCU
14.9%79.72389-9.0-10.06.5811.1%32.1%20.8%19.4%10.0%0.445
SinkerSI
13.2%92.22202+8.3+18.36.836.7%55.3%34.0%9.5%50.0%0.336
SliderSL
10.7%86.82299+6.4+0.36.6436.4%55.3%42.1%17.6%20.0%0.406
SweeperST
5.6%81.92409-1.5-12.36.5533.3%40.0%25.0%50.0%27.3%0.176

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SL · 22″SI · 20″ST · 25″CH · 23″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″SL · 45″SI · 32″ST · 58″CH · 52″CU · 63″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.21′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHCUSISLST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHCUSISLST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHCUSISLST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.