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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

-500+50+100+150+200
Connor Joe

Connor Joe

OF·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
39
H
6
HR
1
AVG
.182
xwOBA
.368
PPG
0.81
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj29.232.318.294.062.28423.1%10.7%12.4%0031.61—
20261639.182
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

39 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
75
.368
xBA
80
.281
.308
.333
.151
.368
28.2%
15.4%
12.8%
1
2
13
0.81
—
20254080.186.269.243.057.27625.0%8.8%16.2%03180.45—
2024124417.227.320.367.140.28121.8%10.6%11.2%921801.45—
2023135472.247.340.421.174.32823.3%10.6%12.7%1132371.76—
2022122468.237.338.358.121.31420.7%11.8%8.9%772371.94—
202172211.285.385.469.184.37019.4%12.3%7.1%801411.96—
20191416.067.125.067.000.22731.3%6.3%25.0%0160.43—
xSLG
57
.435
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
87
92.2
Median EV
100
107.0
90th % EV
81
107.6
Barrel %
53
9.1
Hard-Hit %
67
45.5
Sweet-Spot %
87
40.9
Bat Speed
Avg
57
70.7
Median
13
68.4
90th %
25
74.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
83
23.7
Whiff %
38
23.0
K %
14
28.2
BB %
93
15.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
61
≈ 1th pctl
Chase cost
-2.3r
17 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-0.8r
14 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.2%
74 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-4.17
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1122311324-33%6252225-67%62213311111CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 74