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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Connor Joe

Connor Joe

OF·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
472
H
102
HR
11
AVG
.247
xwOBA
.328
PPG
1.76
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20261639.182.308.333.151.36828.2%15.4%12.8%12130.81—
20254080.186
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

472 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
37
.328
xBA
25
.243
.269
.243
.057
.276
25.0%
8.8%
16.2%
0
3
18
0.45
—
2024124417.227.320.367.140.28121.8%10.6%11.2%921801.45—
2023135472.247.340.421.174.32823.3%10.6%12.7%1132371.76—
2022122468.237.338.358.121.31420.7%11.8%8.9%772371.94—
202172211.285.385.469.184.37019.4%12.3%7.1%801411.96—
20191416.067.125.067.000.22731.3%6.3%25.0%0160.43—
xSLG
26
.405
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
31
88.5
Median EV
47
92.1
90th % EV
42
104.8
Barrel %
43
8.2
Hard-Hit %
50
41.8
Sweet-Spot %
72
37.8
Bat Speed
Avg
68
71.6
Median
73
73.4
90th %
67
77.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
93
19.7
Whiff %
51
21.6
K %
27
23.3
BB %
73
10.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
112
≈ 89th pctl
Chase cost
-23.4r
239 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-18.8r
349 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
39.7%
2,015 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.10
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
1342+27%11+10%20+11%18+25%20+36%14+33%92+33%21-31%39-32%66-19%58-13%31+18%17+18%11+32%34-26%50-23%70-37%75-22%58+38%16+0%6+9%23+16%49+10%41-3%36+12%34+27%114+11%9+8%13+38%13+10%10231CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000