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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Connor Joe

Connor Joe

OF·SEA
Compare
Compare
PA
417
H
83
HR
9
AVG
.227
xwOBA
.281
PPG
1.45
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20261639.182.308.333.151.36828.2%15.4%12.8%12130.81—
20254080.186
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

417 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
3
.281
xBA
1
.204
.269
.243
.057
.276
25.0%
8.8%
16.2%
0
3
18
0.45
—
2024124417.227.320.367.140.28121.8%10.6%11.2%921801.45—
2023135472.247.340.421.174.32823.3%10.6%12.7%1132371.76—
2022122468.237.338.358.121.31420.7%11.8%8.9%772371.94—
202172211.285.385.469.184.37019.4%12.3%7.1%801411.96—
20191416.067.125.067.000.22731.3%6.3%25.0%0160.43—
xSLG
2
.316
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
5
85.3
Median EV
1
87.0
90th % EV
33
103.9
Barrel %
13
4.7
Hard-Hit %
10
32.7
Sweet-Spot %
10
31.3
Bat Speed
Avg
44
69.9
Median
55
71.7
90th %
56
76.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
90
21.9
Whiff %
44
23.0
K %
44
21.8
BB %
73
10.6
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
112
≈ 89th pctl
Chase cost
-23.2r
219 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-12.9r
256 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.2%
1,694 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.13
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
232221+50%14+21%19-10%20-14%21+30%10+56%93+46%13-24%37-33%48-16%64+3%36+55%22+63%8+14%28-2%48-33%83-24%76-11%38+33%27+13%8+22%23+6%47-4%48-8%36+7%30+12%1744+21%19+6%16+0%14+0%105-14%7CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000