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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #365 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Connor Phillips
Connor Phillips · #60
V⁻ —VORP -57V⁺ —
Connor Phillips

Connor Phillips

RP·CIN
Compare
Compare
BF
133
K %
21.1%
BB %
21.1%
xwOBA
.377
PTS
48
PPG
1.92
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj23023.012004.814.4923.8%13.2%10.6%————301.30
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

133 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
98
98.3
FB Spin
92
2484
2026
25
0
27.7
1
0
1
5
5.53
5.85
21.1%
21.1%
0.0%
.377
.254
71.1%
25.7%
48
1.92
202522026.050013.814.7232.7%12.2%20.5%.309.17677.3%30.8%904.09
20235520.711006.975.7627.1%13.5%13.6%.335.25564.0%33.9%255.00
Extension
13
6.04
Results
xwOBA
5
.377
Barrel %
31
9.5
Hard-Hit %
46
40.5
K %
47
21.1
BB %
0
21.1
Chase %
0
21.1
Whiff %
69
24.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
88
≈ 12th pctl
Stuff+
121
if they swing
Command+
71
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
120
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.0%
13 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.054
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.012 worse than avg · 85 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.025
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.005 better than avg · 22 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 258 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
SweeperST
52.0%86.32521+2.2-15.66.0037.5%39.0%29.7%33.3%20.0%0.278
4-Seam FastballFF
46.7%98.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
STFFCU
Usage52%47%1%
MPH86.398.084.9
RHP Avg83.395.080.2
2504
+17.1
+9.7
6.13
15.2%
47.2%
31.1%
17.9%
15.6%
0.454
CurveballCU
1.3%84.92240-11.7-6.66.030.0%66.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.301

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″ST · 24″CU · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 17″ST · 48″CU · 44″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.98′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
STFFCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
STFFCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
STFFCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.