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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #411 of 505

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Connor Seabold
Connor Seabold · #60
V⁻ —VORP -64V⁺ —
Connor Seabold

Connor Seabold

SP / RP·TOR
Compare
Compare
BF
87
K %
17.2%
BB %
6.9%
xwOBA
.279
PTS
31
PPG
1.94
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj33033.012044.734.4818.9%8.1%10.8%————491.50
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

87 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
35
92.8
FB Spin
24
2177
2026
16
0
19.0
1
0
0
1
4.26
4.15
17.2%
6.9%
10.3%
.279
.339
78.0%
45.3%
31
1.94
20258013.000014.154.8720.8%12.5%8.3%.327.29781.4%31.3%212.63
2023301391.717027.465.5016.4%6.9%9.5%.347.34360.8%34.0%210.70
20226518.3050013.756.8619.6%7.2%12.4%.366.49250.0%29.4%-55-9.17
2021113.000006.009.430.0%16.7%-16.7%.456.22283.3%40.0%00.00
Extension
25
6.23
Results
xwOBA
89
.279
Barrel %
94
4.7
Hard-Hit %
85
34.4
K %
19
17.2
BB %
70
6.9
Chase %
74
32.4
Whiff %
13
18.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
106
≈ 72th pctl
Stuff+
90
if they swing
Command+
113
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
93
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.3%
16 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.026
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.016 better than avg · 52 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.075
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.046 worse than avg · 11 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 156 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
50.0%93.82150+16.7+9.26.287.1%65.8%21.9%24.0%18.5%0.219
ChangeupCH
28.8%83.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHSLFCST
Usage50%29%13%7%1%
MPH93.883.083.287.282.8
RHP Avg95.086.986.789.883.3
2279
+1.3
+17.4
6.42
27.8%
26.2%
23.8%
41.9%
15.4%
0.299
SliderSL
13.0%83.22605-1.0-6.06.0350.0%47.4%47.4%40.0%25.0%0.117
CutterFC
6.8%87.22419+6.2-2.96.1420.0%30.0%10.0%28.6%0.0%0.465
SweeperST
1.4%82.82670-1.3-7.56.0550.0%50.0%50.0%100.0%0.0%—

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″CH · 20″FC · 24″SL · 25″ST · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″CH · 55″FC · 44″SL · 54″ST · 55″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.09′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHSLFCST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHSLFCST-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHSLFCST

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.