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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #5 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll · #5
V⁻ 38VORP 88V⁺ 134
Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll

OF·ARI
Compare
Compare
PA
264
H
65
HR
10
AVG
.285
xwOBA
.368
PPG
2.97
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj97417.260.351.487.227.36921.0%11.3%9.7%16202772.86—
202663264.285
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
75
.368
xBA
67
.268
xSLG
.378
.553
.268
.368
21.6%
12.1%
9.5%
10
7
187
2.97
—
2025146645.257.343.538.281.37723.7%10.4%13.3%31324633.17—
2024160684.231.326.428.197.32919.0%10.7%8.3%22384512.82—
2023178646.284.363.505.221.34719.3%8.8%10.5%25625523.10—
202237116.257.328.495.238.29826.7%6.9%19.8%42651.76—
77
.484
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
85
91.8
Median EV
42
92.0
90th % EV
77
107.1
Barrel %
74
12.7
Hard-Hit %
88
50.9
Sweet-Spot %
20
32.4
Bat Speed
Avg
88
74.0
Median
85
74.9
90th %
69
78.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
42
30.9
Whiff %
24
26.3
K %
41
21.6
BB %
73
12.1
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
88
≈ 12th pctl
Chase cost
-7.9r
76 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.2r
54 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.4%
333 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.03
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
352114+21%14+27%11+25%8221+50%10+0%23-65%17-71%14-36%14+20%103+58%12-58%12-9%23-19%16+8%13+22%933+67%9+40%10+31%13+50%653111+14%7511CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 333