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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #110 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Cristian Javier
Cristian Javier · #60
V⁻ —VORP -28V⁺ —
Cristian Javier

Cristian Javier

SP·HOU
Compare
Compare
BF
48
K %
8.3%
BB %
18.8%
xwOBA
.404
PTS
-21
PPG
-7.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj121260.034004.944.9019.7%10.4%9.3%————776.41
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

48 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
37
92.8
FB Spin
32
2201
2026
3
3
9.3
0
1
0
0
12.54
8.56
8.3%
18.8%
-10.5%
.404
.355
51.9%
33.3%
-21
-7.00
20258837.024004.623.6121.5%9.5%12.0%.286.27959.4%31.8%506.25
20248839.341003.664.5718.0%12.7%5.3%.330.24876.4%26.0%779.63
20233535178.7136004.384.4223.1%9.0%14.1%.326.26873.1%26.1%3469.89
20223427163.3139022.373.1033.0%8.9%24.1%.250.21484.7%27.0%49214.47
2021429112.042263.544.4430.7%12.5%18.2%.328.23483.9%28.2%2967.05
2020171063.772023.394.6725.2%8.4%16.8%.271.19785.7%30.0%17510.29
Extension
13
6.03
Results
xwOBA
1
.404
Barrel %
8
12.1
Hard-Hit %
76
36.4
K %
0
8.3
BB %
0
18.8
Chase %
1
22.1
Whiff %
23
19.5
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
79
≈ 2th pctl
Stuff+
98
if they swing
Command+
69
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.2%
20 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.071
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.029 worse than avg · 58 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.042
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.013 worse than avg · 32 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 245 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
48.3%92.82189+16.9+5.96.0811.4%48.2%12.9%22.7%4.3%0.536
SweeperST
25.0%79.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTCHSIKC
Usage48%25%15%6%5%
MPH92.879.184.593.076.8
RHP Avg95.083.386.994.383.0
2578
+2.1
-14.7
5.92
25.0%
50.0%
27.3%
18.2%
12.5%
0.243
ChangeupCH
15.3%84.52354+6.9+15.26.1433.3%48.1%25.9%28.6%20.0%0.213
SinkerSI
6.3%93.02288+15.9+12.26.0620.0%45.5%18.2%16.7%—0.379
Knuckle CurveKC
5.1%76.82978-11.6-11.05.8350.0%0.0%11.1%22.2%0.0%0.706

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 15″SI · 16″ST · 21″CH · 19″KC · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 32″SI · 32″ST · 65″CH · 52″KC · 71″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.31′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTCHSIKC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTCHSIKC-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTCHSIKC

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.