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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #10 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Daniel Palencia
Daniel Palencia · #10
V⁻ —VORP 57V⁺ —
Daniel Palencia

Daniel Palencia

RP·CHC
Compare
Compare
BF
64
K %
25.0%
BB %
6.3%
xwOBA
.305
PTS
56
PPG
3.29
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj41041.0322113.613.5026.4%9.8%16.5%————1974.79
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

64 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
99
99.5
FB Spin
70
2344
2026
17
0
15.7
1
0
3
0
2.30
3.48
25.0%
6.3%
18.7%
.305
.310
92.6%
29.5%
56
3.29
202561061.3462272.933.2128.2%7.4%20.8%.284.28177.9%39.7%2584.23
202411015.302108.803.7523.2%17.4%5.8%.337.39150.0%52.5%-4-0.36
202327028.353024.453.8427.5%11.7%15.8%.307.28465.1%37.1%682.52
Extension
92
6.91
Results
xwOBA
73
.305
Barrel %
69
6.8
Hard-Hit %
94
31.8
K %
74
25.0
BB %
81
6.3
Chase %
81
33.1
Whiff %
98
31.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
103
≈ 61th pctl
Stuff+
114
if they swing
Command+
102
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
108
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
3.8%
3 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.045
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.003 worse than avg · 18 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.081
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.052 worse than avg · 4 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 79 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
70.4%99.02313+17.1+8.36.8740.6%38.0%36.0%58.1%38.5%0.271
Split-FingerFS
16.9%89.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFFSSL
Usage70%17%13%
MPH99.089.689.2
RHP Avg95.086.786.7
1143
+3.3
+11.8
6.91
60.0%
41.7%
25.0%
14.3%
0.0%
0.296
SliderSL
12.7%89.22289+3.7-1.56.740.0%44.4%11.1%0.0%0.0%0.627

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 13″FS · 20″SL · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 14″FS · 38″SL · 36″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.23′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFFSSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFFSSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFFSSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.