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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Daniel Vogelbach

Daniel Vogelbach

H·FA
Compare
Compare
PA
319
H
64
HR
13
AVG
.233
xwOBA
.329
PPG
1.45
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
20243579.186.278.300.114.37021.5%11.4%10.1%10361.03—
2023108319.233
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

319 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
38
.329
xBA
7
.226
.339
.404
.171
.329
25.4%
13.2%
12.2%
13
0
157
1.45
—
2022143461.238.361.433.195.35724.7%15.8%8.9%1802391.67—
2021102258.219.349.381.162.34422.1%16.7%5.4%901371.34—
202041136.209.331.391.182.33824.3%14.7%9.6%60661.61—
2019147560.207.341.438.231.34826.6%16.4%10.2%3002952.01—
201841102.207.324.368.161.36325.5%12.7%12.8%40641.56—
20171631.214.290.250.036.29029.0%9.7%19.3%0050.31—
2016713.083.154.083.000.12346.2%7.7%38.5%00-4-0.57—
xSLG
27
.407
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
83
91.7
Median EV
84
94.9
90th % EV
38
104.6
Barrel %
53
9.3
Hard-Hit %
89
50.0
Sweet-Spot %
10
32.0
Bat Speed
Avg
28
69.0
Median
32
70.7
90th %
37
75.9
Plate Discipline
Chase %
89
21.4
Whiff %
62
19.8
K %
19
25.4
BB %
90
13.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
98
≈ 44th pctl
Chase cost
-21.3r
188 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-16.6r
293 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
36.2%
1,457 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.60
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
1+0%6+31%13+12%17+0%732+0%12-4%27+6%51+18%55+37%35+35%17+17%12+25%24-14%58-54%80-37%64-24%50+46%13+30%10+9%34-27%49-44%57-37%62-24%25+56%165+20%25+9%22+18%17+8%12+18%111453421CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000