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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Danny Jansen

Danny Jansen

C·TEX
Compare
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PA
340
H
62
HR
14
AVG
.213
xwOBA
.300
PPG
1.52
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202640142.171.277.309.138.25328.2%9.2%19.0%31401.00—
202598340.213
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

340 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
5
.300
xBA
0
.201
.320
.395
.182
.300
25.3%
12.4%
12.9%
14
0
149
1.52
—
202485324.205.312.349.144.29418.8%12.3%6.5%901381.62—
202387301.228.312.474.246.31720.6%7.6%13.0%1701932.22—
202276249.259.344.514.255.37117.7%10.0%7.7%1511872.46—
202169205.223.299.473.250.33321.5%8.3%13.2%1101251.81—
202044147.183.315.358.175.35421.1%14.3%6.8%60871.98—
2019112384.207.280.360.153.31420.6%8.1%12.5%1301711.53—
20183195.247.351.432.185.31417.9%9.5%8.4%30501.61—
xSLG
5
.359
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
13
87.0
Median EV
24
91.7
90th % EV
7
101.5
Barrel %
39
8.8
Hard-Hit %
23
39.0
Sweet-Spot %
58
36.6
Bat Speed
Avg
7
66.5
Median
13
69.2
90th %
11
73.8
Plate Discipline
Chase %
95
19.7
Whiff %
52
22.0
K %
24
25.3
BB %
85
12.4
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
116
≈ 95th pctl
Chase cost
-16.3r
164 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-9.7r
204 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
43.2%
1,344 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.94
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
333+0%9+0%822+36%11+0%10+19%27+19%26+15%20+40%101+50%18-29%38-31%39-18%60-10%52+26%31+0%9+42%24-16%50-25%77-19%77-25%60+7%30+0%7+33%15+42%19+4%49-22%41-14%21+7%144+0%6+8%12+10%10+0%62+0%6CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000