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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
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    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #5 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100David Bednar
David Bednar · #5
V⁻ —VORP 75V⁺ —
David Bednar

David Bednar

RP·NYY
Compare
Compare
BF
123
K %
26.8%
BB %
9.8%
xwOBA
.268
PTS
113
PPG
4.19
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj42042.0522113.333.1828.3%8.7%19.6%————2185.18
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

123 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
82
95.9
FB Spin
71
2345
2026
27
0
27.7
2
3
13
0
3.90
3.06
26.8%
9.8%
17.0%
.268
.333
67.2%
62.3%
113
4.19
202571070.7652942.292.1734.1%7.5%26.6%.271.28779.7%44.1%3615.08
202464059.7392335.734.6122.1%10.7%11.4%.330.28762.8%36.6%1682.63
202368069.0333901.962.3828.9%7.6%21.3%.269.29776.5%42.2%3775.54
202251058.0341942.332.2932.7%7.6%25.1%.290.31977.8%33.9%2555.00
202164062.3313132.172.4732.5%8.0%24.5%.249.26585.2%42.1%2303.59
2020507.300106.143.7815.6%6.3%9.3%.424.40060.3%36.0%112.20
201913011.002026.555.4629.2%10.4%18.8%.315.26964.8%34.5%100.77
Extension
49
6.49
Results
xwOBA
93
.268
Barrel %
96
3.9
Hard-Hit %
58
39.0
K %
86
26.8
BB %
23
9.8
Chase %
100
39.2
Whiff %
91
28.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
105
≈ 68th pctl
Stuff+
106
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
95
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
12.7%
26 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 81 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.008
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.021 better than avg · 9 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 205 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CurveballCU
35.1%76.32433-7.9-9.16.2030.8%50.8%36.9%21.9%11.1%0.312
4-Seam FastballFF
33.5%95.5

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE38°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CUFFFS
Usage35%34%31%
MPH76.395.590.8
RHP Avg80.295.086.7
2337
+18.4
+9.6
6.64
11.4%
41.9%
21.0%
44.4%
8.3%
0.409
Split-FingerFS
31.4%90.81672+3.2+9.76.5828.6%48.3%25.9%40.0%23.5%0.173

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″CU · 23″FS · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″CU · 71″FS · 35″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.38′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CUFFFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CUFFFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CUFFFS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.