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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
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    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #48 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Davis Martin
Davis Martin · #48
V⁻ —VORP 16V⁺ —
Davis Martin

Davis Martin

SP·CHW
Compare
Compare
BF
288
K %
25.3%
BB %
5.9%
xwOBA
.302
PTS
198
PPG
16.50
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181895.056004.094.0020.2%7.7%12.5%————1528.46
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
34
92.7
FB Spin
87
2430
Extension
2026
12
12
72.3
8
2
0
0
2.61
2.45
25.3%
5.9%
19.4%
.302
.313
78.7%
45.6%
198
16.50
20252726147.7810004.024.5517.3%8.0%9.3%.350.27171.7%45.9%2218.19
2024111050.005004.324.2021.3%10.4%10.9%.317.32174.6%46.9%514.64
202214963.336004.834.2717.8%7.1%10.7%.338.28866.4%38.4%735.21
33
6.34
Results
xwOBA
75
.302
Barrel %
83
6.2
Hard-Hit %
12
45.1
K %
74
25.3
BB %
86
5.9
Chase %
92
35.2
Whiff %
81
26.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
107
≈ 75th pctl
Stuff+
105
if they swing
Command+
94
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.4%
45 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 115 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.028
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.002 better than avg · 38 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 433 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
24.4%93.92402+15.5+6.06.2911.4%58.8%25.9%14.3%17.2%0.315
ChangeupCH
18.4%89.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE37°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHFCSISLCU
Usage24%18%18%16%13%10%
MPH93.989.789.592.786.982.2
RHP Avg95.086.989.894.386.780.2
2112
+1.7
+15.0
6.21
12.2%
59.4%
20.3%
42.3%
11.5%
0.413
CutterFC
18.4%89.52536+8.4-1.86.2025.9%60.9%34.4%20.0%33.3%0.514
SinkerSI
16.4%92.72398+9.2+14.96.287.1%59.6%24.6%34.8%20.0%0.267
SliderSL
12.6%86.92516+2.9-4.56.2055.0%31.8%34.1%36.7%30.8%0.178
CurveballCU
9.8%82.22911-6.3-13.46.1118.8%44.1%17.6%26.3%15.8%0.330

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 19″SI · 20″FC · 22″CH · 24″CU · 26″SL · 27″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 26″SI · 30″FC · 38″CH · 37″CU · 57″SL · 43″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.25′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHFCSISLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHFCSISLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHFCSISLCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.