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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
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    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
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    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
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    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #81 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Dean Kremer
Dean Kremer · #60
V⁻ —VORP -9V⁺ —
Dean Kremer

Dean Kremer

SP·BAL
Compare
Compare
BF
43
K %
37.2%
BB %
4.7%
xwOBA
.320
PTS
24
PPG
12.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj171378.045004.444.2520.5%7.3%13.2%————1196.99
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

43 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
31
92.5
FB Spin
50
2267
2026
2
2
11.0
0
1
0
0
4.09
5.46
37.2%
4.7%
32.5%
.320
.190
68.2%
36.0%
24
12.00
20253229177.01110004.173.8120.0%6.3%13.7%.305.28770.6%40.2%3119.72
20242525133.3910004.054.2022.2%9.2%13.0%.332.25966.8%42.3%2379.48
20233535184.0138004.504.6421.4%7.5%13.9%.338.29774.8%40.2%3138.94
20222523134.389013.553.9617.0%6.6%10.4%.329.30876.8%40.3%2228.88
2021141458.308007.256.7219.1%10.2%8.9%.380.29867.3%30.2%-1-0.07
20204418.711004.822.6726.5%14.5%12.0%.334.30663.0%30.6%317.75
Extension
30
6.29
Results
xwOBA
54
.320
Barrel %
1
16.0
Hard-Hit %
78
36.0
K %
99
37.2
BB %
96
4.7
Chase %
90
34.4
Whiff %
97
30.9
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
96
≈ 36th pctl
Stuff+
109
if they swing
Command+
95
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
107
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
5.6%
9 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.047
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.005 worse than avg · 49 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.022
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.007 better than avg · 15 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 162 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
Split-FingerFS
36.3%82.51221+10.9+10.86.2744.4%41.4%37.9%52.9%50.0%0.059
4-Seam FastballFF
21.3%93.3

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE43°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FSFFSICUFCSL
Usage36%21%14%11%10%8%
MPH82.593.392.877.686.783.5
RHP Avg86.795.094.380.289.886.7
2229
+18.4
+5.3
6.18
0.0%
52.9%
29.4%
50.0%
0.0%
0.908
SinkerSI
13.8%92.82219+12.1+15.56.270.0%36.4%18.2%0.0%33.3%0.045
CurveballCU
11.3%77.62864-13.3-8.06.1114.3%33.3%11.1%66.7%0.0%1.374
CutterFC
10.0%86.72304+4.7-5.16.1016.7%87.5%37.5%100.0%100.0%0.389
SliderSL
7.5%83.52626+4.4-7.26.2550.0%50.0%33.3%33.3%33.3%0.000

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 19″FS · 22″FC · 24″SL · 26″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 29″SI · 31″FS · 55″FC · 43″SL · 54″CU · 68″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.38′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FSFFSICUFCSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FSFFSICUFCSL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FSFFSICUFCSL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.