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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. RP peers

Rank #7 of 506

Each bar is one RP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100Devin Williams
Devin Williams · #7
V⁻ —VORP 64V⁺ —
Devin Williams

Devin Williams

RP·NYM
Compare
Compare
BF
95
K %
34.7%
BB %
14.7%
xwOBA
.284
PTS
82
PPG
3.42
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj41041.0531833.193.1231.1%11.1%20.0%————2054.99
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

95 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
50
93.6
FB Spin
64
2318
2026
24
0
21.0
3
2
8
0
5.57
3.20
34.7%
14.7%
20.0%
.284
.378
66.2%
42.6%
82
3.42
202572067.05618174.432.6234.7%9.7%25.0%.274.29758.9%45.0%2733.79
202424023.3111502.702.8043.2%12.5%30.7%.234.26283.3%43.2%1456.04
202364061.3833601.762.6837.7%12.1%25.6%.257.21283.6%47.8%3936.14
202271065.76515282.332.0040.0%12.5%27.5%.229.28074.1%50.5%3354.72
202162057.7823232.502.7038.3%12.3%26.0%.262.29682.8%45.9%2594.18
202022027.041090.330.7753.0%9.0%44.0%.187.19484.3%61.1%1486.73
201913013.700023.954.7120.9%9.0%11.9%.300.37273.3%42.2%231.77
Extension
97
7.32
Results
xwOBA
86
.284
Barrel %
47
8.5
Hard-Hit %
100
27.7
K %
99
34.7
BB %
0
14.7
Chase %
95
35.8
Whiff %
100
37.7
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
115
≈ 94th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
107
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
118
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
3.8%
4 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.029
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.013 better than avg · 35 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.084
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.055 worse than avg · 5 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 105 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
53.3%93.42325+16.3+11.87.4034.8%53.6%37.5%23.1%35.7%0.233
ChangeupCH
46.7%85.1

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE20°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCH
Usage53%47%
MPH93.485.1
RHP Avg95.086.9
2467
-0.1
+22.2
7.25
25.0%
38.8%
20.4%
40.0%
14.3%
0.404

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″CH · 20″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 30″CH · 53″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.10′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.