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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #11 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen · #11
V⁻ —VORP 78V⁺ —
Drew Rasmussen

Drew Rasmussen

SP·TBR
Compare
Compare
BF
282
K %
27.3%
BB %
4.6%
xwOBA
.268
PTS
208
PPG
16.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020100.065003.633.4222.5%6.1%16.3%————20110.04
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
47
93.5
FB Spin
97
2552
Extension
2026
13
13
73.0
6
2
0
0
2.71
3.03
27.3%
4.6%
22.7%
.268
.236
76.6%
50.5%
208
16.00
20253332155.7105002.663.7621.6%6.3%15.3%.292.24183.9%49.5%37411.33
202416428.702132.831.2930.2%5.2%25.0%.227.33367.7%53.3%734.56
20238844.742002.622.3826.4%6.2%20.2%.265.29377.4%53.4%11814.75
20223231156.0128002.883.1621.3%5.3%16.0%.298.26775.7%47.5%36311.34
2021401182.341123.173.2123.8%8.1%15.7%.302.26172.7%48.3%2025.05
202013016.310005.514.3229.6%12.7%16.9%.282.37574.6%53.7%302.31
54
6.55
Results
xwOBA
92
.268
Barrel %
72
6.8
Hard-Hit %
94
31.6
K %
89
27.3
BB %
97
4.6
Chase %
74
32.4
Whiff %
53
22.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
123
≈ 99th pctl
Stuff+
101
if they swing
Command+
128
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
100
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.5%
27 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.026
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.016 better than avg · 101 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.040
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.011 worse than avg · 13 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 319 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
37.4%90.42685+4.0-4.36.6123.4%51.7%25.8%32.6%26.5%0.147
4-Seam FastballFF
27.7%95.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE51°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCFFSICHSTCU
Usage37%28%21%7%4%3%
MPH90.495.995.789.384.980.1
RHP Avg89.895.094.386.983.380.2
2526
+17.0
+4.8
6.67
18.2%
57.6%
36.4%
42.9%
10.0%
0.529
SinkerSI
20.6%95.72443+12.2+16.26.705.3%63.3%36.7%33.3%12.5%0.258
ChangeupCH
7.1%89.31062+2.9+10.66.6783.3%11.8%29.4%26.7%42.9%0.000
SweeperST
3.8%84.92684+0.4-12.86.580.0%33.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.493
CurveballCU
3.4%80.12658-11.5-5.86.5350.0%62.5%50.0%0.0%100.0%0.000

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″SI · 18″ST · 24″CU · 23″FC · 25″CH · 24″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″SI · 26″ST · 52″CU · 61″FC · 37″CH · 39″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.12′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCFFSICHSTCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCFFSICHSTCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCFFSICHSTCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.