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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Drew Waters

Drew Waters

OF·KCR
Compare
Compare
PA
337
H
69
HR
8
AVG
.228
xwOBA
.313
PPG
1.40
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202569219.243.288.316.073.26527.4%5.0%22.4%15550.80—
2024819.188
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

337 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
16
.313
xBA
9
.230
.316
.250
.062
.201
31.6%
10.5%
21.1%
0
0
3
0.38
—
202391337.228.302.377.149.31331.8%8.0%23.8%8161271.40—
202231109.240.324.479.239.30136.7%11.0%25.7%50501.61—
xSLG
31
.414
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
12
87.4
Median EV
8
88.9
90th % EV
23
103.9
Barrel %
59
10.1
Hard-Hit %
15
35.9
Sweet-Spot %
93
39.9
Bat Speed
Avg
59
70.8
Median
66
72.6
90th %
66
77.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
26
31.7
Whiff %
9
29.8
K %
2
31.8
BB %
36
8.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
88
≈ 11th pctl
Chase cost
-28.6r
260 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.6r
153 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
51.3%
1,315 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.98
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
21+14%7+8%13+20%10+0%72+10%10+40%25+18%39+13%39+33%36+23%22+0%10+63%27+12%43-29%63-19%72-3%37+57%30+50%12+55%31+8%52-28%47-20%64-15%33+35%20+50%8+20%15+33%27+0%17-8%24+0%17+21%145+14%742+17%6323CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000