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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #75 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Dustin May
Dustin May · #60
V⁻ —VORP -6V⁺ —
Dustin May

Dustin May

SP·STL
Compare
Compare
BF
282
K %
21.3%
BB %
6.7%
xwOBA
.309
PTS
115
PPG
8.85
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2517108.077004.203.9920.3%8.3%12.0%————1757.02
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
79
95.6
FB Spin
77
2367
Extension
2026
13
13
72.7
4
6
0
0
4.21
3.21
21.3%
6.7%
14.6%
.309
.322
66.3%
44.8%
115
8.85
20252624137.3811004.854.7821.1%9.6%11.5%.351.29371.8%42.7%1877.19
2023101053.742002.853.1718.2%8.6%9.6%.287.21769.7%44.4%12412.40
20226630.023004.504.3722.8%11.0%11.8%.303.23764.2%51.9%498.17
20218837.031002.432.6737.6%5.4%32.2%.269.28984.3%56.9%11514.38
2020191366.741022.844.4219.6%7.1%12.5%.314.25084.6%54.6%1578.26
201918544.323043.452.8322.7%3.5%19.2%.304.32367.7%46.0%874.83
74
6.69
Results
xwOBA
66
.309
Barrel %
73
6.7
Hard-Hit %
3
49.0
K %
47
21.3
BB %
77
6.7
Chase %
39
29.9
Whiff %
33
20.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
116
≈ 95th pctl
Stuff+
98
if they swing
Command+
109
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
103
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
10.8%
33 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.006 better than avg · 81 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.003
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.032 better than avg · 13 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 305 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
30.1%96.92312+14.4+10.66.7911.4%60.9%29.3%25.0%10.7%0.356
SweeperST
21.2%85.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE31°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTSIFCCUCH
Usage30%21%18%15%8%8%
MPH96.985.696.593.582.790.2
RHP Avg95.083.394.389.880.286.9
3121
-3.1
-16.3
6.49
20.8%
49.2%
27.7%
21.2%
25.0%
0.339
SinkerSI
18.0%96.52358+6.3+17.96.7313.3%50.9%21.8%37.0%16.7%0.307
CutterFC
15.0%93.52457+10.1-0.06.828.0%54.3%28.3%38.1%33.3%0.181
CurveballCU
8.2%82.73116-15.6-10.96.4625.0%40.0%28.0%13.3%0.0%0.189
ChangeupCH
7.5%90.21767+1.3+17.56.790.0%47.8%17.4%25.0%50.0%0.526

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″FC · 21″CH · 19″SI · 19″ST · 24″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 21″FC · 29″CH · 38″SI · 23″ST · 49″CU · 56″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.12′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTSIFCCUCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTSIFCCUCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTSIFCCUCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.