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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

-500+50+100+150+200
Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson

OF·PHI
Compare
Compare
PA
4
H
0
HR
0
AVG
.000
xwOBA
.069
PPG
-1.00
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj15.212.355.273.061.28121.5%14.9%6.6%0032.54—
202624.000
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

4 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.069
xBA
0
.067
.000
.000
.000
.069
50.0%
0.0%
50.0%
0
0
-2
-1.00
—
202577242.202.278.335.133.28622.3%8.7%13.6%64901.17—
202490266.208.289.275.067.25928.2%8.3%19.9%32730.81—
202378256.218.320.332.114.31719.1%10.2%8.9%551201.54—
2022134489.236.318.379.143.30519.2%9.2%10.0%852431.81—
2021156619.266.348.437.171.32124.6%9.2%15.4%1823152.02—
202039119.200.254.364.164.31429.4%6.7%22.7%32511.31—
xSLG
0
.096
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
2
84.4
Median EV
1
84.4
90th % EV
0
87.4
Barrel %
0
0.0
Hard-Hit %
0
0.0
Sweet-Spot %
100
50.0
Bat Speed
Avg
2
63.3
Median
4
66.1
90th %
1
67.0
Plate Discipline
Chase %
100
11.1
Whiff %
3
33.3
K %
0
50.0
BB %
0
0.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
100
≈ 50th pctl
Chase cost
-0.7r
8 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.0r
13 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
40.0%
65 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.53
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
111+0%6321313+0%825-43%72212131CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 65