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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson

OF·PHI
Compare
Compare
PA
256
H
48
HR
5
AVG
.218
xwOBA
.317
PPG
1.54
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202624.000.000.000.000.06950.0%0.0%50.0%00-2-1.00—
202577242.202
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

256 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
20
.317
xBA
13
.231
.278
.335
.133
.286
22.3%
8.7%
13.6%
6
4
90
1.17
—
202490266.208.289.275.067.25928.2%8.3%19.9%32730.81—
202378256.218.320.332.114.31719.1%10.2%8.9%551201.54—
2022134489.236.318.379.143.30519.2%9.2%10.0%852431.81—
2021156619.266.348.437.171.32124.6%9.2%15.4%1823152.02—
202039119.200.254.364.164.31429.4%6.7%22.7%32511.31—
xSLG
11
.379
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
41
89.1
Median EV
18
90.6
90th % EV
11
102.1
Barrel %
19
5.8
Hard-Hit %
22
37.6
Sweet-Spot %
58
37.0
Bat Speed
Avg
16
67.8
Median
27
70.0
90th %
19
74.5
Plate Discipline
Chase %
72
24.7
Whiff %
60
20.2
K %
59
19.1
BB %
66
10.2
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 79th pctl
Chase cost
-16.8r
173 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-7.7r
143 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.2%
1,086 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.25
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
+33%65+0%16+0%9+8%12+0%62+29%7+21%24+10%30+0%39+48%23+13%155+48%33+7%58-33%67-16%57-17%52+29%28+22%9+22%27-12%40-34%64-21%57-9%33+43%285+33%6+42%26+20%25+0%23+35%20+0%123554+0%10+0%821CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000