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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson

OF·PHI
Compare
Compare
PA
266
H
49
HR
3
AVG
.208
xwOBA
.259
PPG
0.81
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202624.000.000.000.000.06950.0%0.0%50.0%00-2-1.00—
202577242.202
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

266 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
0
.259
xBA
0
.196
.278
.335
.133
.286
22.3%
8.7%
13.6%
6
4
90
1.17
—
202490266.208.289.275.067.25928.2%8.3%19.9%32730.81—
202378256.218.320.332.114.31719.1%10.2%8.9%551201.54—
2022134489.236.318.379.143.30519.2%9.2%10.0%852431.81—
2021156619.266.348.437.171.32124.6%9.2%15.4%1823152.02—
202039119.200.254.364.164.31429.4%6.7%22.7%32511.31—
xSLG
0
.285
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
10
86.2
Median EV
5
88.5
90th % EV
10
101.3
Barrel %
4
2.5
Hard-Hit %
3
25.8
Sweet-Spot %
12
31.9
Bat Speed
Avg
7
66.2
Median
12
68.1
90th %
12
73.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
73
24.6
Whiff %
9
29.1
K %
10
28.2
BB %
49
8.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
105
≈ 70th pctl
Chase cost
-17.8r
181 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-8.9r
141 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
48.0%
1,129 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.36
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
33+17%6+0%9+0%652+0%7+14%22+0%44+7%30+23%22+7%15+0%13+22%27+2%57-28%60-24%54+2%53+38%29+7%14+43%30+22%37-18%60-17%63-18%39+35%23+9%11+32%19+44%25+23%35-15%26+9%22+18%11333+14%7+0%10+0%721CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000