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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson

OF·PHI
Compare
Compare
PA
242
H
44
HR
6
AVG
.202
xwOBA
.286
PPG
1.17
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202624.000.000.000.000.06950.0%0.0%50.0%00-2-1.00—
202577242.202
2025 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

242 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
1
.286
xBA
1
.211
.278
.335
.133
.286
22.3%
8.7%
13.6%
6
4
90
1.17
—
202490266.208.289.275.067.25928.2%8.3%19.9%32730.81—
202378256.218.320.332.114.31719.1%10.2%8.9%551201.54—
2022134489.236.318.379.143.30519.2%9.2%10.0%852431.81—
2021156619.266.348.437.171.32124.6%9.2%15.4%1823152.02—
202039119.200.254.364.164.31429.4%6.7%22.7%32511.31—
xSLG
4
.354
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
16
87.7
Median EV
15
90.3
90th % EV
9
101.7
Barrel %
20
6.7
Hard-Hit %
7
30.5
Sweet-Spot %
58
36.6
Bat Speed
Avg
8
66.9
Median
9
68.2
90th %
7
73.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
95
19.2
Whiff %
66
20.0
K %
41
22.3
BB %
50
8.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
119
≈ 97th pctl
Chase cost
-12.0r
125 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-6.7r
135 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.0%
1,027 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-1.82
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
1+11%9+0%7+0%113+17%6+11%9+25%16-6%34+25%40+7%44+9%22+6%18+26%19-11%37-32%47-14%65-23%69+23%31+18%11+23%26-6%35-26%58-26%58-17%59+29%38+14%7+22%9+33%18-8%13+19%31+25%16+55%1152+0%6+0%85+0%712CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000