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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #70 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Edward Cabrera
Edward Cabrera · #60
V⁻ —VORP -3V⁺ —
Edward Cabrera

Edward Cabrera

SP·CHC
Compare
Compare
BF
247
K %
21.5%
BB %
8.5%
xwOBA
.338
PTS
80
PPG
7.27
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj161686.054004.063.8223.8%9.5%14.4%————16210.13
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
84
96.0
FB Spin
39
2226
Extension
2026
11
11
57.7
3
3
0
0
4.99
4.89
21.5%
8.5%
13.0%
.338
.311
68.0%
45.6%
80
7.27
20252626137.787003.533.7925.7%8.2%17.5%.315.29276.7%47.5%29111.19
2024202096.348004.954.6225.6%11.7%13.9%.338.27866.4%47.7%1386.90
20232321105.077004.114.1427.1%15.2%11.9%.301.28275.4%55.7%1968.52
2022151574.774002.894.4825.7%11.3%14.4%.313.20186.3%47.1%19112.73
20217726.303005.816.5623.1%15.7%7.4%.412.28669.9%42.0%152.14
39
6.39
Results
xwOBA
28
.338
Barrel %
4
12.9
Hard-Hit %
44
40.9
K %
48
21.5
BB %
41
8.5
Chase %
81
33.2
Whiff %
74
25.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
90
≈ 15th pctl
Stuff+
119
if they swing
Command+
90
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.0%
36 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.049
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.007 worse than avg · 124 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.008 worse than avg · 46 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 448 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
ChangeupCH
36.6%92.81784+4.6+17.36.4231.2%38.8%26.9%45.1%18.6%0.308
4-Seam FastballFF
18.9%95.7

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE34°100 PITCHSAMPLE
CHFFCUSISL
Usage37%19%18%16%10%
MPH92.895.784.696.088.2
RHP Avg86.995.080.294.386.7
2215
+13.9
+12.7
6.30
20.8%
40.6%
21.7%
14.6%
13.3%
0.361
CurveballCU
18.3%84.62443-7.6-6.56.2727.3%40.3%32.8%25.0%20.0%0.385
SinkerSI
16.4%96.02202+9.8+16.96.410.0%48.3%20.0%25.8%10.0%0.345
SliderSL
9.8%88.22409+3.3-0.36.3353.3%27.8%30.6%30.8%10.0%0.125

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 16″SI · 19″SL · 24″CH · 24″CU · 26″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 24″SI · 23″SL · 40″CH · 31″CU · 51″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.30′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
CHFFCUSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
CHFFCUSISL-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
CHFFCUSISL

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.