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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #69 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Emerson Hancock
Emerson Hancock · #60
V⁻ —VORP -3V⁺ —
Emerson Hancock

Emerson Hancock

SP·SEA
Compare
Compare
BF
293
K %
24.9%
BB %
5.8%
xwOBA
.327
PTS
197
PPG
15.15
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj371393.045004.164.1020.1%7.4%12.7%————1484.00
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
47
93.4
FB Spin
74
2358
Extension
2026
13
13
75.7
5
2
0
0
2.74
3.72
24.9%
5.8%
19.1%
.327
.239
85.5%
41.4%
197
15.15
2025241694.045004.885.0616.5%8.0%8.5%.359.28672.2%43.9%1114.63
2024131364.744004.595.4814.7%7.1%7.6%.372.26671.8%35.6%836.38
20233312.000004.503.9312.2%6.1%6.1%.286.30868.5%50.0%144.67
22
6.18
Results
xwOBA
44
.327
Barrel %
17
10.6
Hard-Hit %
15
44.9
K %
74
24.9
BB %
88
5.8
Chase %
9
26.0
Whiff %
42
21.0
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
117
≈ 95th pctl
Stuff+
96
if they swing
Command+
107
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
101
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.2%
41 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.038
RV per pitch · league 0.042
-0.004 better than avg · 135 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.067 better than avg · 15 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 365 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
36.7%94.72532+12.7+13.56.1723.1%66.4%26.1%40.0%25.0%0.252
SweeperST
27.4%77.9

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE13°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSTSIFCCH
Usage37%27%22%10%4%
MPH94.777.994.686.187.0
RHP Avg95.083.394.389.886.9
2642
+2.2
-16.0
6.08
30.8%
35.0%
22.0%
21.5%
16.7%
0.068
SinkerSI
21.6%94.62349+1.3+19.36.229.6%68.4%24.1%52.0%15.8%0.404
CutterFC
10.4%86.12310+3.8-3.76.0918.2%47.4%34.2%10.0%7.7%0.287
ChangeupCH
3.8%87.01473+0.2+17.16.120.0%7.1%0.0%7.7%0.0%0.031

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″ST · 22″SI · 21″FC · 23″CH · 22″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 25″ST · 71″SI · 27″FC · 49″CH · 44″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.01′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSTSIFCCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSTSIFCCH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSTSIFCCH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.