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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Emmanuel Rivera

Emmanuel Rivera

3B·FA
Compare
Compare
BF
20
K %
0.0%
BB %
0.0%
xwOBA
.385
PTS
-3
PPG
-0.75
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
2025101.0000072.0022.100.0%15.4%-15.4%.548.70023.3%18.2%-23-23.00
2024 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

20 BF — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Arsenal
FB Velo
0
—
FB Spin
0
—
2024
4
0
4.0
0
0
0
0
9.00
7.10
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
.385
.333
60.6%
31.6%
-3
-0.75
Extension
0
4.68
Results
xwOBA
0
.385
Barrel %
92
5.3
Hard-Hit %
0
47.4
K %
0
0.0
BB %
100
0.0
Chase %
48
28.6
Whiff %
0
7.1
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
44
≈ 1th pctl
Stuff+
6
if they swing
Command+
112
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
14
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
48.2%
27 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.034
RV per pitch · league 0.046
-0.012 better than avg · 8 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.016
RV per pitch · league 0.031
-0.015 better than avg · 4 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 56 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
EephusEP
53.6%58.71535+15.9+10.44.590.0%53.3%16.7%28.6%0.0%0.380
OtherFA
25.0%82.72086

2024 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE19°100 PITCHSAMPLE
EPFACH
Usage54%25%21%
MPH58.782.769.8
RHP Avg—67.986.1
+15.2
+9.4
5.01
0.0%
50.0%
28.6%
14.3%
0.0%
0.251
ChangeupCH
21.4%69.81813+16.8+10.74.5125.0%41.7%16.7%42.9%—0.540

2024 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTCH · 16″EP · 16″FA · 18″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′CH · 87″EP · 114″FA · 56″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.94′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2024 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
EPFACH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
EPFACH-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
EPFACH

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.