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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
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    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
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    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
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    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #33 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Emmet Sheehan
Emmet Sheehan · #33
V⁻ —VORP 40V⁺ —
Emmet Sheehan

Emmet Sheehan

SP·LAD
Compare
Compare
BF
248
K %
25.8%
BB %
6.5%
xwOBA
.307
PTS
108
PPG
9.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj211577.043003.843.6627.1%8.0%19.1%————1677.94
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
63
94.4
FB Spin
86
2420
Extension
2026
12
12
59.3
3
3
0
0
4.70
4.31
25.8%
6.5%
19.3%
.307
.292
73.8%
37.6%
108
9.00
2025211280.763003.352.9530.6%7.6%23.0%.272.27667.7%33.7%2039.67
2023141164.041105.064.8225.7%10.4%15.3%.291.24469.6%33.1%1309.29
63
6.60
Results
xwOBA
69
.307
Barrel %
28
9.7
Hard-Hit %
67
37.6
K %
80
25.8
BB %
79
6.5
Chase %
95
36.1
Whiff %
92
28.8
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
97
≈ 37th pctl
Stuff+
111
if they swing
Command+
93
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
106
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
8.9%
30 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.045
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.003 worse than avg · 95 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.022
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.008 better than avg · 33 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 338 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
39.1%94.32388+18.4+9.16.6526.7%40.6%28.7%31.7%15.8%0.584
SliderSL
28.3%87.0

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFSLCHCU
Usage39%28%23%9%
MPH94.387.085.376.2
RHP Avg95.086.786.980.2
2313
+4.2
-2.7
6.54
43.9%
38.4%
39.7%
46.7%
33.3%
0.222
ChangeupCH
23.3%85.31274-0.8+13.96.5216.7%60.0%20.0%16.7%11.5%0.319
CurveballCU
9.3%76.22620-14.5-10.96.540.0%41.7%33.3%7.1%0.0%0.140

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 13″SL · 22″CU · 21″CH · 20″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 27″SL · 46″CU · 73″CH · 49″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.27′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFSLCHCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFSLCHCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFSLCHCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.