Flanker the ClankerFlanker
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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺.

0+50+100+150
Eric Lauer

Eric Lauer

SP / RP·LAD
Compare
Compare
BF
205
K %
15.1%
BB %
8.8%
xwOBA
.363
PTS
47
PPG
4.27
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj26235.023004.804.7620.2%8.0%12.2%————461.79
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
3
89.5
FB Spin
26
2185
Extension
2026
11
9
52.7
2
5
0
0
5.47
6.46
15.1%
8.8%
6.3%
.363
.226
76.6%
28.6%
47
4.27
20253315113.392023.183.7823.9%6.1%17.8%.307.26680.7%29.7%2818.52
2023111050.747006.936.8920.4%11.4%9.0%.405.32467.6%25.0%181.64
20223130165.3118013.974.4723.7%8.9%14.8%.321.26775.8%34.9%32410.45
20212521122.375023.243.9823.9%8.4%15.5%.306.25278.9%37.7%27110.84
20204211.0020013.096.2819.7%14.8%4.9%.409.41747.6%21.1%-23-5.75
20193130153.7810004.334.0621.2%7.8%13.4%.315.31471.4%41.8%2337.52
20182323112.067004.344.4519.8%9.1%10.7%.335.33274.7%38.6%1506.52
5
5.79
Results
xwOBA
10
.363
Barrel %
9
11.7
Hard-Hit %
52
39.6
K %
8
15.1
BB %
37
8.8
Chase %
59
31.7
Whiff %
0
14.2
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
86
≈ 8th pctl
Stuff+
82
if they swing
Command+
103
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
73
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
15.4%
48 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.051
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.009 worse than avg · 91 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.037
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.008 worse than avg · 24 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 312 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
46.2%90.62122+16.1+9.85.8514.1%53.1%26.2%35.3%25.0%0.380
ChangeupCH
19.1%83.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE37°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHFCSLCU
Usage46%19%17%10%8%
MPH90.683.286.582.674.7
LHP Avg93.284.688.184.779.0
1127
+5.0
+10.9
5.78
18.5%
31.7%
13.3%
24.4%
10.5%
0.309
CutterFC
16.6%86.52289+9.9-1.05.8031.8%38.5%26.9%28.1%10.0%0.141
SliderSL
10.2%82.62150+4.9-3.05.787.1%37.5%12.5%25.0%0.0%0.378
CurveballCU
8.0%74.72389-9.1-8.65.660.0%52.0%40.0%8.3%33.3%0.209

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 17″FC · 20″CH · 22″SL · 25″CU · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 35″FC · 45″CH · 53″SL · 56″CU · 73″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.48′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHFCSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHFCSLCU-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHFCSLCU

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.