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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #69 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Evan Carter
Evan Carter · #60
V⁻ -20VORP 11V⁺ 19
Evan Carter

Evan Carter

OF·TEX
Compare
Compare
PA
229
H
34
HR
6
AVG
.176
xwOBA
.294
PPG
1.47
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj70301.232.324.391.159.32222.1%10.8%11.3%8121502.14—
202666229.176
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
11
.294
xBA
3
.199
xSLG
.293
.321
.145
.294
23.6%
12.7%
10.9%
6
10
97
1.47
—
202564220.247.336.392.145.31418.6%8.6%10.0%5141241.94—
202449162.188.273.361.173.28626.5%9.3%17.2%52621.27—
20233975.306.419.645.339.34232.0%16.0%16.0%56992.54—
9
.337
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
6
85.3
Median EV
44
92.2
90th % EV
17
101.9
Barrel %
32
7.0
Hard-Hit %
26
37.8
Sweet-Spot %
18
32.2
Bat Speed
Avg
24
68.6
Median
12
68.3
90th %
32
75.2
Plate Discipline
Chase %
94
19.3
Whiff %
35
24.4
K %
33
23.6
BB %
77
12.7
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
110
≈ 84th pctl
Chase cost
-3.9r
42 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-3.7r
68 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
38.4%
357 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.12
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
2425+0%7325+9%11-8%13+0%155+0%91+33%6-4%23-38%26-23%26-31%16+20%104+29%7-7%15-46%13-57%21-36%11+88%833+14%7+6%17+7%15413511CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 357