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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. SS peers

Rank #27 of 64

Each bar is one SS, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-200-1000+100Ezequiel Tovar
Ezequiel Tovar · #27
V⁻ -43VORP -9V⁺ 18
Ezequiel Tovar

Ezequiel Tovar

SS·COL
Compare
Compare
PA
241
H
46
HR
4
AVG
.207
xwOBA
.296
PPG
1.16
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj93401.261.302.428.167.32224.0%5.4%18.6%1261862.00—
202662241.207
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
12
.296
xBA
20
.232
xSLG
.261
.320
.113
.296
26.6%
5.8%
20.8%
4
4
72
1.16
—
202599391.252.295.399.147.32025.1%5.4%19.7%951581.60—
2024161697.268.297.467.199.29228.7%3.3%25.4%2663031.88—
2023158615.253.289.408.155.29127.0%4.1%22.9%15112851.80—
20221535.212.257.333.121.30225.7%5.7%20.0%11392.60—
30
.391
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
20
87.1
Median EV
69
94.0
90th % EV
56
105.7
Barrel %
43
8.2
Hard-Hit %
19
35.8
Sweet-Spot %
64
37.7
Bat Speed
Avg
48
70.3
Median
35
70.7
90th %
33
75.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
1
43.8
Whiff %
24
26.3
K %
19
26.6
BB %
11
5.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
87
≈ 10th pctl
Chase cost
-10.0r
96 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.4r
28 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
60.8%
372 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-3.07
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
122444+17%631+67%6+0%10-6%18-17%18-36%11+43%71+77%13+29%14+3%31-27%26-11%18+50%121+50%14+52%27+22%18+40%15+29%742+63%8+17%6+29%7321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 372