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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. OF peers

Rank #7 of 234

Each bar is one OF, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100+150+200Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. · #7
V⁻ 8VORP 70V⁺ 86
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

2B / OF·SDP
Compare
Compare
PA
275
H
65
HR
1
AVG
.269
xwOBA
.350
PPG
1.69
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj102440.269.354.459.190.36119.9%11.0%9.0%17192722.67—
202665275.269
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
61
.350
xBA
80
.282
xSLG
.344
.322
.053
.350
21.5%
9.5%
12.0%
1
15
110
1.69
—
2025163692.267.368.445.178.37518.6%12.9%5.7%25354502.76—
2024110438.276.341.492.216.39121.9%7.3%14.6%21113072.79—
2023146635.257.323.449.192.36422.2%8.3%13.9%25293842.63—
2021138547.282.366.610.328.41228.0%11.3%16.7%42254383.17—
202067258.276.366.569.293.42323.6%10.5%13.1%17122343.49—
201990372.317.382.590.273.34829.6%8.1%21.5%22182592.88—
48
.413
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
51
89.9
Median EV
97
100.4
90th % EV
88
108.5
Barrel %
59
10.1
Hard-Hit %
82
50.0
Sweet-Spot %
28
33.5
Bat Speed
Avg
75
72.7
Median
75
74.2
90th %
76
78.6
Plate Discipline
Chase %
54
28.3
Whiff %
22
26.4
K %
41
21.5
BB %
54
9.5
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
110
≈ 84th pctl
Chase cost
-5.3r
62 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-2.2r
36 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
45.7%
359 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.11
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
12531324-11%95+11%9+38%824+14%7+27%15-14%21-32%19+6%16+63%85+33%9+25%16-11%28-20%20-21%14+30%105+50%10+29%14+8%12+20%10+36%11413+0%734CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 359