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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #81 of 165

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Foster Griffin
Foster Griffin · #60
V⁻ —VORP -12V⁺ —
Foster Griffin

Foster Griffin

SP·WSN
Compare
Compare
BF
321
K %
23.1%
BB %
6.5%
xwOBA
.324
PTS
188
PPG
13.43
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj181896.046004.193.9721.1%7.3%13.8%————1518.42
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
3
89.5
FB Spin
17
2157
Extension
2026
14
14
78.0
7
2
0
0
3.46
4.74
23.1%
6.5%
16.6%
.324
.239
81.4%
44.1%
188
13.43
2022707.300008.594.1912.5%15.6%-3.1%.480.37050.0%50.0%-2-0.29
2020202.711006.753.8516.7%0.0%16.7%.086.30040.0%80.0%10.50
26
6.25
Results
xwOBA
49
.324
Barrel %
8
11.8
Hard-Hit %
61
38.6
K %
60
23.1
BB %
76
6.5
Chase %
42
29.8
Whiff %
45
21.4
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
106
≈ 73th pctl
Stuff+
97
if they swing
Command+
103
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
99
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
9.6%
41 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.044
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.002 worse than avg · 119 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
-0.002
RV per pitch · league 0.029
-0.031 better than avg · 23 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 426 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
CutterFC
32.3%88.02211+7.5-4.96.3116.9%66.4%28.3%28.9%23.8%0.433
4-Seam FastballFF
16.9%91.6

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE46°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FCFFSTCHSICUFS
Usage32%17%13%11%10%9%8%
MPH88.091.680.083.291.178.081.2
LHP Avg88.193.281.084.693.079.0—
2031
+15.9
+4.1
6.44
0.0%
54.2%
18.6%
7.4%
15.0%
0.386
SweeperST
12.6%80.02447+1.0-16.16.1028.6%38.6%29.5%25.9%8.3%0.306
ChangeupCH
11.1%83.21850+7.9+14.86.1225.0%28.2%15.4%14.3%0.0%0.220
SinkerSI
9.7%91.12028+10.4+15.26.3823.1%47.1%35.3%33.3%16.7%0.275
CurveballCU
9.1%78.02316-12.8-8.26.0533.3%50.0%34.4%37.5%28.6%0.267
Split-FingerFS
8.3%81.21175+1.8+0.46.2946.7%6.9%24.1%51.9%24.0%0.129

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 20″FC · 22″SI · 20″CH · 22″ST · 25″CU · 26″FS · 25″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 34″FC · 41″SI · 35″CH · 56″ST · 63″CU · 68″FS · 61″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (4.28′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). LHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FCFFSTCHSICUFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FCFFSTCHSICUFS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FCFFSTCHSICUFS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. LHP.