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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C·NYM
Compare
Compare
PA
423
H
80
HR
25
AVG
.209
xwOBA
.306
PPG
1.74
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202637128.241.320.393.152.34721.9%8.6%13.3%40501.35—
202574277.256
2023 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

423 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
9
.306
xBA
0
.204
.339
.447
.191
.330
26.4%
9.7%
16.7%
11
0
132
1.78
—
2024108342.237.309.403.166.29825.1%8.8%16.3%1121701.57—
2023121423.209.284.437.228.30626.0%8.0%18.0%2522111.74—
20221014.167.286.500.333.41828.6%14.3%14.3%10121.20—
xSLG
40
.428
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
59
90.1
Median EV
62
93.1
90th % EV
73
106.7
Barrel %
83
12.8
Hard-Hit %
66
45.1
Sweet-Spot %
2
29.3
Bat Speed
Avg
79
72.6
Median
84
74.5
90th %
77
78.7
Plate Discipline
Chase %
63
26.2
Whiff %
12
29.1
K %
16
26.0
BB %
36
8.0
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
105
≈ 67th pctl
Chase cost
-26.8r
259 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-11.7r
217 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
44.9%
1,622 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.37
lg avg -2.54
Count
View
1+14%7+29%73453+27%11+25%16+5%20+11%27+40%20+33%64+44%25-23%48-27%49-14%56+0%38+61%18+33%6+23%30-2%50-31%71-28%58+0%42+32%254+26%19+21%38+2%41-16%37+14%21+50%81+24%17+7%14+14%14+25%8+0%7+0%6CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000