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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Francisco Alvarez

Francisco Alvarez

C·NYM
Compare
Compare
PA
342
H
73
HR
11
AVG
.237
xwOBA
.298
PPG
1.57
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
202639138.246.319.410.164.33823.2%8.0%15.2%50551.41—
202574277.256
2024 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

342 PA — below qualified cutoff. Percentiles vs. qualified pool (faded).

Expected Results
xwOBA
6
.298
xBA
6
.223
.339
.447
.191
.330
26.4%
9.7%
16.7%
11
0
132
1.78
—
2024108342.237.309.403.166.29825.1%8.8%16.3%1121701.57—
2023121423.209.284.437.228.30626.0%8.0%18.0%2522111.74—
20221014.167.286.500.333.41828.6%14.3%14.3%10121.20—
xSLG
13
.376
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
37
88.8
Median EV
32
91.5
90th % EV
75
107.0
Barrel %
27
6.7
Hard-Hit %
51
42.0
Sweet-Spot %
0
28.1
Bat Speed
Avg
73
71.9
Median
73
73.0
90th %
72
78.1
Plate Discipline
Chase %
39
29.1
Whiff %
24
26.9
K %
25
25.1
BB %
53
8.8
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
94
≈ 27th pctl
Chase cost
-26.8r
255 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-10.9r
192 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
46.4%
1,384 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.72
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
34+33%12+17%623+0%8+44%18+18%17+32%25+74%19+67%9+57%7+33%18-3%36-35%52-20%45+0%39+77%132+12%33-11%47-47%75-29%59-24%50+50%225+18%33+37%43+10%67+17%48+22%18+45%11+14%7+20%10+13%23+17%18+11%9522CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 1,000