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  • Projections
    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Hitting value vs. 1B peers

Rank #4 of 40

Each bar is one 1B, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

-500+50+100Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman · #4
V⁻ 26VORP 51V⁺ 102
Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman

1B·LAD
Compare
Compare
PA
274
H
67
HR
10
AVG
.280
xwOBA
.371
PPG
2.75
Career Seasons
YrGPAAVGOBPSLGISOxwOBAK%BB%K-BB%HRSBPtsPPGxPPG
Proj97418.279.363.473.194.37017.8%10.9%6.9%1652672.75—
202664274.280
2026 MLB Percentiles

Hitting Profile

Expected Results
xwOBA
76
.371
xBA
75
.276
xSLG
.365
.477
.197
.371
16.8%
11.3%
5.5%
10
2
176
2.75
—
2025168628.294.369.501.207.35620.4%9.6%10.8%2474262.54—
2024164640.281.381.474.193.37515.6%12.2%3.4%22104752.90—
2023171732.330.411.565.235.41216.5%9.8%6.7%29235903.45—
2022173709.325.410.511.186.41514.4%11.8%2.6%21145693.29—
2021184695.300.394.503.203.41915.4%12.2%3.2%3195563.02—
202074262.341.462.640.299.47514.1%17.2%-3.1%1323004.05—
2019169693.294.389.548.254.40318.3%12.6%5.7%3865433.21—
2018173707.309.391.505.196.39418.7%10.7%8.0%23104852.80—
2017125515.306.404.585.279.41518.4%12.6%5.8%2884283.42—
80
.491
Quality of Contact
Avg EV
77
91.0
Median EV
85
95.8
90th % EV
69
106.5
Barrel %
63
11.2
Hard-Hit %
71
46.4
Sweet-Spot %
75
38.8
Bat Speed
Avg
30
68.8
Median
31
70.3
90th %
33
75.3
Plate Discipline
Chase %
66
26.5
Whiff %
63
19.3
K %
73
16.8
BB %
69
11.3
Swing Decisions

Plate Discipline · Decision+

Expected-run-value of every swing-or-take decision, against a league-average batter’s optimum. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Decision+
108
≈ 78th pctl
Chase cost
-6.6r
68 swings @ bad pitch
Passive cost
-1.9r
37 takes @ hittable pitch
Swing rate
52.6%
384 pitches seen
Runs per 100
-2.21
lg avg -2.53
Count
View
312414+44%9+0%7+25%12+8%12+20%1034+14%14+9%11-14%21+0%28-27%15+78%95+40%10+13%24-26%27-26%27-17%12+33%914+25%8+19%16+45%11+33%92123321CATCHER'S VIEW
Judgment — swing% vs optimal
−35%−15%0+15%+35%
  • Red cells — swings more than an optimal batter would here (chasing).
  • Blue cells — swings less than optimal (too passive).
  • Number in cell: swing%-delta vs optimal. Top-right: pitches seen.
Total pitches shown: 384