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    In-house Bayesian model · career prior + aging × stuff/discipline signals
  • Plate Discipline
    Decision+ · chase / passive cost · K% · BB%
  • Command & Stuff
    Pitching+ · Stuff+ · Command+ · meatball rate
  • Pitcher Stuff Lab
    In-zone whiff · xwOBAcon · tunnel · deception · count predictability
  • Stuff Model (diag)
    From-scratch XGBoost training runs, feature importance, pitcher grades
  • Expected Points
    Luck-neutral fantasy points · xSLG / xwOBA · ΔPts
  • Hitter Frontier
    Power × discipline tradeoff · Pareto-frontier hitters
  • Pitcher Frontier
    Process × contact-suppression · pound the zone vs limit damage
  • Hitter Vulnerabilities
    Biggest pitch-trait strengths & weaknesses · vs league or vs own
  • AAA Hitters
    Triple-A bats · xwOBA · contact quality · discipline · frontier
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Position cohort

Pitching value vs. SP peers

Rank #62 of 164

Each bar is one SP, ordered left-to-right by Value (blended). Center dot is VORP; whiskers span V⁻ → V⁺. This player is highlighted in blue.

0+50+100+150Freddy Peralta
Freddy Peralta · #60
V⁻ —VORP 3V⁺ —
Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta

SP·NYM
Compare
Compare
BF
309
K %
23.9%
BB %
9.7%
xwOBA
.306
PTS
140
PPG
10.00
Career Seasons
YrGGSIPWLSVHLDERAFIPK%BB%K-BB%xwOBABABIPLOB%GB%PtsPPG
Proj2020104.076003.873.8125.6%9.2%16.4%————21210.58
2026 MLB Percentiles

Pitching Profile

Arsenal
FB Velo
53
93.9
FB Spin
83
2411
Extension
2026
14
14
78.0
4
5
0
0
3.81
4.13
23.9%
9.7%
14.2%
.306
.283
75.0%
43.3%
140
10.00
20253737195.3189003.273.9528.2%9.1%19.1%.290.24882.8%37.5%49713.43
20243534183.0119013.794.0927.5%9.4%18.1%.309.27778.8%37.4%39911.40
20233333180.31312003.893.7530.9%7.9%23.0%.285.27073.8%42.8%41612.61
2022222192.355004.003.1427.0%8.5%18.5%.262.25866.4%39.8%1978.95
20213230159.3106002.883.0133.4%9.6%23.8%.256.24479.0%34.0%46114.41
202016130.331034.152.7037.6%9.6%28.0%.270.31768.0%36.5%925.75
201940988.373155.203.9630.1%9.7%20.4%.307.34165.5%34.2%1914.78
2018171481.364004.093.6029.8%12.4%17.4%.297.23369.6%32.6%19011.18
46
6.45
Results
xwOBA
72
.306
Barrel %
87
5.9
Hard-Hit %
44
40.9
K %
63
23.9
BB %
23
9.7
Chase %
46
30.4
Whiff %
77
25.3
Command & Stuff

Pitching+

Expected run-value conceded per pitch against a rational hitter, standardized against the season. 100 = avg · 110 = 1 SD better.

Pitching+
88
≈ 11th pctl
Stuff+
112
if they swing
Command+
89
out-of-zone take RV
Strike quality+
95
RV of in-zone pitches
Crushable pitches
11.6%
43 meatballs
Putaway counts (0-2, 1-2)
0.058
RV per pitch · league 0.042
+0.016 worse than avg · 132 pitches
Lower RV = more wasted whiff chances when they choose not to put hitters away.
Hitter's counts (3-0, 3-1, 2-0)
0.036
RV per pitch · league 0.029
+0.007 worse than avg · 21 pitches
How often they groove get-me-overs vs. nibble safely.
Based on 371 pitches. RV = Statcast delta_run_exp; lower = better for the pitcher.
Pitch Arsenal
PitchUsageVeloSpinIVBHBExtWhiff%Zone%CSW%Chase%PutAway%xwOBA
4-Seam FastballFF
49.3%93.52403+17.5+7.56.5725.0%56.0%32.1%23.5%19.2%0.376
ChangeupCH
23.1%87.2

2026 Movement Profile (Induced Break)

MLB Avg.
6"12"18"24"24"24"24"1B ◀ MOVES TOWARD ▶ 3B▲MORERISE▼MOREDROPARMANGLE33°100 PITCHSAMPLE
FFCHCUSLCS
Usage49%23%17%9%1%
MPH93.587.279.082.874.9
RHP Avg95.086.980.286.7—
1922
+1.3
+18.7
6.47
29.5%
37.2%
26.7%
40.7%
18.9%
0.182
CurveballCU
17.4%79.02261-3.9-5.66.5032.3%36.9%32.3%36.6%25.0%0.249
SliderSL
9.1%82.82301+1.3-2.86.5958.3%17.6%23.5%25.0%8.3%0.235
Slow CurveCS
1.1%74.92384-10.2-9.66.400.0%0.0%0.0%50.0%0.0%1.038

2026 Swing-Out Snapshot

Commit at the decision point, then fast-forward 150ms. Where is each pitch when your bat crosses the zone? Two views of the same moment — catcher-facing and from the side.

Catcher View
horizontal × vertical
0.5′1′1.5′2′2.5′3′DECISIONPOINTFF · 18″CH · 21″SL · 25″CU · 24″CS · 23″arm side ◀ ▶ glove sidedrops ◀ ▶ rises
Side View
depth × vertical
1′2′3′4′5′6′-3′0′5′10′15′20′23′FF · 28″CH · 44″SL · 55″CU · 63″CS · 75″DECISION POINTPLATEfeet to plate
swing time150 ms

Each pitch is launched from a shared decision point (3.92′ height) and advanced using its own Statcast kinematics (release velocity + constant acceleration, so gravity, drag, and Magnus are all in the curve). RHP.

2026 Tunneling

Where pitches are when the hitter commits — and where they end up. Tighter cluster on the left = more deceptive arsenal.

At Decision
23 ft out · ~280ms before arrival
FFCHCUSLCS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
At the Plate
Where they actually cross
FFCHCUSLCS-2′-1′0′1′2′1′2′3′4′1B ◀ catcher view ▶ 3B
FFCHCUSLCS

Decision point computed from Statcast kinematics (vx0/vy0/vz0, ax/ay/az) by projecting each pitch back to y = 23 ft. Coordinates in catcher’s view: 1B on the left, 3B on the right. RHP.